Packers Vs. Bears; The Game of the Week

One for the Ages

Dick Butkis, Vince Lombardi. Mike Ditka, Curly Lambeau. Lambeau Field, Soldier Field. A combined fifty-five Hall of Famers. More NFL titles than any other two teams in history. More NFL titles between the two than any other division has in total. A combined winning percentage of .569, the highest winning percentage of any two teams in the same division. A head to head record of 91-83-6, separated by only 112 points. The most prolific rivalry in all of the NFL. Bears vs. Packers. Yet this NFC championship game is receiving less hype than last week's Jets vs. Patriots match-up. And I find that to be a load of BS.

This match-up has history. This match-up has two of the best defenses in the NFL. This match-up has excitement (Cutler vs. Rodgers, Urlacher vs. Hawk, Hester vs. the Packers Special Teams). Dating back to 1921, these two teams have played each other more times than any two other teams in the history of the NFL. But unlike the Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry, these two teams rarely meet up in the post-season. In fact, they have only made the playoffs in the same season three times, and only once have they played head to head in the post-season. But that only makes this game that much more exciting.

Great History

I am excited to see what history will be made between these two teams on Sunday, as Bears vs. Packers games have had some of the most exciting moments in history. In 1924, this matchup resulted in the first ejection of players for fighting, after punches were thrown. In 1933, the only previous playoff meeting between the two, the Bears won 33-14 on their way to the NFL title. In 1964, the Packers became only the fifth team to attempt the rare "fair catch kick". A little known rule, the fair catch kick allows a team to kick a field goal from the spot of a fair catch, with the defense lining up ten yards downfield. This allows the kicker to not have to line up behind the offensive or defensive line, and be worried about a block. Paul Hornung made the kick as the first half expired, en route to a Packers victory. But Chicago got their revenge four years later, as Mac Percival pulled off a game winning fair catch kick against the Packers with twenty seconds left. These two teams seem to live by, "Anything you can do, I can do better". In 1932, the Packers beat the Bears in Chicago by a score of 2-0, one of five games in NFL history to conclude with such a score. The most recent? Six years later, the Bears did the same thing to the Packers at Green Bay.

In one of the most exciting finishes in a Bears-Packers game, the Packers Chester Marcol came into the game in overtime in an attempt to kick the game winning field goal. The Bears managed to block the kick, but the ball bounced straight into the arms of Marcol who ran the ball in for the game winning touchdown.

Recent Big Game History

No matter how good the history is, nothing can predict a winner better than recent statistics. Since 1991, the Bears and Packers have played late in the season (after week 11) a total of 18 times when there has been at least some level of importance to the game. I ranked the games based on how important they were to each times playoff outcome, and there ended up being five games in which both teams were in the playoff hunt, and the head to head match-up helped determine who made the playoffs.

December 5, 1993 Week 14

Played in Chicago, the Bears came into the game 6-5, and the Packers came in 7-4. The Bears pulled off a victory 30-17 in this big game match-up, leaving both teams at 7-5. This match-up was important because it kept the Bears in the playoff hunt for a while longer. The Packers, at the time, were leading the division, as well as the head-to-head against the Lions. At the end of the season, the Packers ended up finishing one game back of the Lions, and had to settle for the Wildcard. The managed to beat the Lions in the Wildcard game, but went on to lose to the #1 seeded Dallas Cowboys.

December 11, 1994 Week 15

Coming into Week 15, both teams were 7-6 and one game behind the 8-5 Vikings. The Packers took advantage of the opportunity and blew out the Bears at home by a final score of 40-3. The Vikings also won in Week 15, and went on to win the Division. However, both the Packers and the Bears made the playoffs with the Wildcard. The win in Week 15, however, gave the Packers a higher seed then the Bears. Both managed to make it past the first round, but the Packers would fall to Dallas and the Bears to the eventual Super Bowl Champion 49ers.

November 12, 1995 Week 11

The Packers were behind in the division by one game to the Bears. The 6-3 Bears came into Lambeau Field with the opportunity to put the 5-4 Packers just a little bit further in the rear-view mirror. In a hard fought game, the Packers managed to hold on to the lead 35-28, and tie the division. The Packers would only lose one more game on their way to the division title, as the Bears fell to 9-7 on the year and missed the Wildcard by one game.

December 9, 2001 Week 13

Again, the Bears had to go into Lambeau Field late in the season up on the Packers by one game. At 9-2, the Bears were fighting with the St. Louis Rams for the #1 seed and home field advantage. But Brett Favre would lead the Packers out of Lambeau with a 17-7 win, and the Packers tied up the division at 9-3. The Packers would again only lose one more game, but the Bears won out and won the division by one game. The Packers would win the Wildcard round game against the 49ers, but both teams would lose in the Divisional round.

January 2, 2011 Week 17

In the most recent (and one of the most playoff-deciding) games in the rivalry, the Bears traveled to Lambeau with their playoff seed already decided; however the Packers needed a win against the division leading Bears to make the Wildcard. The Bears starters would play most off the game, but the Packers won a defensive game 10-3 to eke their way into the playoffs. They now match up against the Bears in the playoffs. Will the Bears regret not knocking out their rivals when they had the chance?

In big games over the last twenty years, the Packers have the advantage. They also have the psychological edge from the week 17 victory. But who holds the most telling, the statistical edge?

Sunday Afternoon Showdown

There are three key match-ups this weekend that will determine the outcome of the game. Rodgers vs. Cutler, Bears O-Line vs. Packers front seven, and Devin Hester vs. the Packers Special Teams. If the Packers kick to Hester, he has the capability to change a game. The Packers need to kick it out of bounds, and make Cutler beat them with his arm. If the Bears can't figure out the blitzing scheme of Dom Capers, Cutler will be looking for the hit instead of the receivers downfield, and this game will become reminiscent of the early season Bears.

I think what will have the biggest impact on the outcome will be the quarterback battle. Both defenses will show up, there are no worries about that. But how easily the quarterbacks adjust to the defense is going to be key. Let's take a look at Rodgers and Cutler, and see who is going to be the game changer, shall we?

Cutler has been in Chicago for two years now, and has played the Packers four times. In Rodgers' career in Green Bay, he has played the Bears six times:

Passer Rating: Cutler has a passer rating of 61.0 in those four games, twice finishing a game with a rating of 43.0. Aaron Rodgers' passer rating against the Bears is below his career average, but still up at a 92.8. In home games against the Packers, Cutler has a 78.7 Passer Rating. On the road, Rodgers is still higher at 89.7.

Advantage: Rodgers on the road

Yards Per Game: Jay Cutler's numbers are relatively consistent in YPG both at home and on the road. In the last four games, he is averaging 218 ypg, and at home in those games, 215 ypg. Rodgers is actually doing a little better on the road. In his career vs. the Bears, he is averaging 232 ypg; in his career at Soldier field? 252 ypg.

Advantage: Rodgers on the road

TD's/INT's: Cutler's numbers don't look so good on this one, averaging one TD and 2.25 picks in the last four games against the Pack. But at home, Cutler is averaging 1.5 TD's and 1.5 picks. Rodgers, again being more consistent, is averaging 1.17 TDs and .7 picks per game, and just a slight drop to 1 TD per game on the road.

*Interesting note- Rodgers has not thrown more than one INT in a game against the Bears. Cutler has more than one INT in three of four games. In the cold weather, and in a defensive matchup with some great offenses, turnovers will help determine this game.

Advantage: Rodgers on the road (barely)

One more thing to note. Cutler gets sacked an average of 3.5 times per game against the Packers, and Rodgers only 1.5. If the Packers can get to Cutler, and keep Rodgers safe, the Bears are going to have a hard time winning.

On A Roll

The stats that get me convinced though, are the numbers in the last 6 games for each QB:

Jay Cutler

Passer Rating: 85.9

Yards Per Game: 206

TD's: 9

INT's: 6

Sacks: 18

Aaron Rodgers*

Passer Rating: 109.8

Yards Per Game: 254

TD's: 14

INT's: 2

Sacks: 15

*By the way, this includes Week 14, where Rodgers got knocked out of the game in the second quarter, with a concussion.

In this match-up, you just can't go against Rodgers. In the playoffs, he has a 73% completion percentage, 323 ypg, 10 TD's, and 1 INT. Oh yeah, and a Passer Rating of 126.9. He's the only quarterback in history to have a Passer Rating over 120 in his first two playoff appearances, and he's done it now 3 times. I'd be willing to bet tomorrow makes it 4.

Some Predictions?

Rodgers: 285 Yards, 3 Total TD's, 1 INT

Cutler: 220 Yards, 2 TD's, 2 INTs

Devin Hester: 1 Punt return for TD

Clay Matthews: 1.5 Sacks, 8 Tackles

Final Score: Packers 34 Bears 24

One last thing to think about, if the Packers being on the road is making you think twice about a Green Bay victory: Since 1990, the Packers are 14-7 in Chicago. Go Pack.

See: [http://www.pro-football-reference.com]

[NFL.com]

Analyzing the Four Possible Super Bowl Match-Ups

While the NFL is my favorite sport, I am more than willing to admit that its post-season does not always provide a match-up of the two best teams for any given year.  If the NFL employed a BCS style system, we'd all be getting pumped for a Falcons-Patriots Championship game, with everyone and their mother confident of a victory for the Golden Boy.

Instead, we got to witness one of the better defensive performances of recent post-season history in the Jets incredible upset of New England.  Now, without getting into whether a Brady-less Super Bowl is good for the NFL [Hint: It is], there is no doubt that the four remaining teams could each provide their own interesting story-lines and drama to the first-ever Super Bowl in Jerry World.
 
Having said that, not all Super Bowls are created equal.  For every incredible upset (Super Bowl III or Super Bowl XLII) and down-to-the-wire finish (Super Bowl XLIII), there have been some huge blowouts (Super Bowl XXIV) and boring snooze-fests (Super Bowl XL).  With only two games left before this year's installment of America's biggest sporting event, here are the four potential match-ups (some of which are better than others).

Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh
Following the Jets upset of the Patriots on Sunday, these two teams certainly seem to be the best remaining teams.  This match-up would lend itself to plenty of offense (Packers) versus defense (Steelers) story-lines, but Clay Matthews and the Packers' defense going against the Steelers' shaky offensive line would be the more important factor in this game, in my mind.  Given the historic nature of each of these teams, and their rabid fan-bases, this would be quite an event down in Jerry World.  Vegas believes this is the most likely match-up, and I tend to agree.

Predicted Spread: Green Bay -3.5.  Particularly if the Packers beat the Bears handily on Sunday, and if Aaron Rodgers has a big game, it'd be hard for Vegas to make them the underdog in the Super Bowl.  Rodgers has had a fantastic post-season thus far [more on this later in the week], and if he puts up even remotely comparable numbers, Green Bay will be the favorite.  As for Pittsburgh, they would be coming off back-to-back hard-fought victories over defensive teams, and their offensive line is already in worse shape than Al Davis' forehead.  Despite the fact that they'd be coming off three straight road playoff games, the Packers would likely be healthier and fresher.  Regardless, there is no doubt in my mind that this would be a competitive game, and the football fan in me would be ridiculously excited to see this game.

Green Bay vs. New York
If the Jets were to make it to the Super Bowl, they would have had to face Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger (winners of six of the past nine Super Bowls) in their last three games, all on the road.  I certainly don't envy that path, but having to face one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Aaron Rodgers in the Super Bowl would only be appropriate.  In addition, their defense would get a rematch against one of the best offenses in the league, whom they played well against in week 8, though their offense provided no support whatsoever.  Another interesting dynamic of this game is the fact that two six seeds would be facing off in the Super Bowl (which has never happened before). Add in Rex Ryan, Bart Scott, Clay Matthews and the emerging star Tramon Williams, and I don't think the media would have much trouble coming up with story-lines for this game.

Predicted Spread: Green Bay -7.  As was the case for the match-up with Pittsburgh, this spread would be affected by the likelihood of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense having a big game, while the Jets would be coming off a gritty defensive battle with the Steelers.  Pittsburgh is probably seen as a better team than New York, and throwing in the fact that the Steelers are a historically public team, it is likely that the difference in spread would be about three points from the Steelers to the Jets.  As with the Packers-Steelers game, I feel that this would be a competitive game, though given Sanchez' youth and inconsistency do leave room for doubt.  Overall, I can't imagine many non-Steelers/Bears fans being disappointed with this result.

Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
While the Bears are at home this weekend and the Jets are on the road, I get the feeling that more people would be surprised to see Chicago in the Super Bowl.  It is likely due to how impressive the Packers have looked the past two weeks and the fact that the Jets have already gone on the road and taken down tough AFC teams.  Having said that, if the Bears were to beat the Packers and advance to face the Steelers in the Super Bowl, it would actually provide a similar (albeit somewhat less interesting) match-up to Packers-Steelers.  Like Green Bay, Chicago is also a storied franchise, with an exciting young quarterback and solid defense. This battle of two-seeds would be a good defensive struggle, though I doubt it would be as low-scoring as some might think.

Predicted Spread: Pittsburgh -6.5. Chicago has had an unusual season, in that they won some games they shouldn't have (see: Johnson, Calvin) and lost some games they shouldn't have (including Seattle @ Chicago Part 1).  In light of that fact, I'm not sure Vegas knows exactly what to think of them.  Admittedly, a win over the red-hot Packers would be extremely impressive, but I believe two weeks of people comparing them to the Steelers would leave little doubt as to who the better team is.  Personally, I'd prefer to see the Packers face the Steelers than the Bears, but if Chicago were to beat Green Bay for the second time this season, it'd be difficult to say they weren't the better team.

New York vs. Chicago
What strikes me to most about this potential match-up is that it would pit the loudest team in the NFL against perhaps the quietest team in the playoffs.  While the Jets have been in the national spotlight since HBO's "Hard Knocks," the Bears have been relatively under-the-radar all season.  This contrast would likely be highlighted over the course of the two-week build-up to the Super Bowl, and I would be very interested to see if the Jets attempted to engage Jay Cutler and the Bears in any trash talk.  Another intriguing element of this game is the fact that both quarterbacks have a history of inconsistency and multi-interception games, and both would be going against upper-echelon defenses.

Predicted Spread: New York -3.  Though Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan are only in their second season together, going to two straight AFC Championship games and beating three of the league's best quarterbacks in consecutive weeks would help alleviate some of the concerns of making the Jets favorites in the Super Bowl.  Combined with Cutler's lack of playoff experience and potential for off-games, I would be surprised if Chicago were not the underdog in this game.  This game is clearly the least likely of the four, and I think Rex Ryan is more likely to challenge Wes Welker to a footrace than he is to go head-to-head with Lovie Smith in Dallas. Sorry, I couldn't resist...

January Basketball?

First things first. It's early January: there's playoff football going on (at the professional level, anyway), and the NFL is king. At least it used to be, until a different king took over the sports world with his "Decision" last summer.  Prior to LeBron's collaboration with Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh, it was essentially only hardcore NBA fans that paid serious attention to regular season basketball (other than the occasion Christmas Day game to get a break from family). But LeBron changed that when he and Wade, arguably two of the three best players in the league, joined forces on the Miami Heat.  Suddenly, everyone seemed to be on the edge of their seat, eager to see what would become of South Beach's new triumvirate.  

For the first seventeen games of the NBA season, Miami went 9-8, struggling under the immense pressure that went along with their team's talent (on paper).  Opposing arenas were far more hostile than the "Heatles" had anticipated, and this was having a definite impact on their game.

However, propelled by a 38 point performance in front of many who had "witnessed" LeBron's greatness for the previous seven years, the Heat suddenly exploded, going on a 21-1 run over their next 22 games.  It seemed that LeBron had accepted his newfound role as the villain.  As Miami piled up wins, LeBron grew comfortable in his new skin.  He recently attempted to cement this caricature of himself with this tweet, following his recently-ex-teammate-Cavaliers' 55 point loss to the Lakers:

"Crazy. Karma is a b****.. Gets you every time. Its not good to wish bad on anybody. God sees everything!" 

Initially, it was difficult not to feel that LeBron had made a huge mistake, that he was trashing players with whom he had been snapping faux-pictures on the sidelines less than a year ago. After apparently reaching that same conclusion himself, LeBron backed away from his comments the next day when asked about them.  That night, he sprained his ankle during a loss to the Clippers, ending the Heat’s 21-1 run.  Miami followed up that performance with a loss to Denver, with an injured LeBron sitting on the bench (though he is listed as day-to-day).

Regardless of how anyone feels about LeBron and the Heat, they have brought excitement and drama back to the league.  David Stern certainly doesn't seem to begrudge LeBron for providing increased ratings. Thanks to LeBron and his friends in South Beach (not to mention the continued Carmelo Anthony trade rumors), it is difficult not to pay attention to the NBA.  Even if it is early January, and the NFL playoffs are in full swing.

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