Regular Season Win Totals (Sort of)

Let me preface this post by saying that the actual numerical win total that will beside each team is unimportant. That seems counter-intuitive given that this post is about predicting regular season win totals, but use it as more of a benchmark. The main purposes of this post are to compare the win totals I've predicted to those that Vegas has put up and see where they differ. If it helps someone make some money along the way, all the better.

In my last post I gave each team a numerical score and mentioned that I would use them to play out the entire season. Allow me to explain my system a little further: For each game on the 2011-2012 schedule, I wrote down the home team and whichever team received a higher score from me in my last post. If both were the same team, I gave them the victory. If not, I wrote down the difference in the two teams scores. If it was less than 5, the home team won; if it was greater, the away team. I realize that this seems overly simple, but the truth of the matter is that home field advantage is extremely significant. For the most part, this also ensured that evenly matched teams in the same division would split their two match-ups.

To clarify a little further: The highest score I gave to any team was a 72 to the Steelers. Because of the nature of my scoring system, I necessarily predicted that they would go 8-0 at home. Because they have a higher score than anyone, they will always win their home games. Of course, in actuality, I realize that they could well go 5-3 or 6-2 at home this season; however, they will also probably win an away game or two that I am predicting they will lose. In the end, I'd imagine it will even out. Similarly, I gave the lowest score (48.5) to Cincinnati. Once again, I necessarily had them going 0-8 on the road. Because they will never have a higher score than their opponent, they can not get a road win using my system. Again, I recognize the flaws in the system.

One last thing before I get to the predictions: The tendency in my system is that the numbers will go to the extremes. You will see many high numbers and low numbers. For this reason, I encourage you to focus less on the actual number values and more on my commentary afterwards. For example, I have the Redskins going 0-16. In actuality, I don't think the Redskins will go winless this year, but I would be willing to put a lot of money on the under of 6 wins.

[Insert Rex Grossman joke here]

Now, without further ado, here are my regular season win totals for the upcoming NFL season*:

NFC
East:
Philadelphia Eagles: 14-2 (bet the over on 10.5). Yes, I know I'm a homer. Get over it.
Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (stay away; the line is at 9 wins). I'm surprised how high I am on the Cowboys.
New York Giants: 7-9 (bet the under on 9.5). I really didn't like their offseason. They didn't get better.
Washington Redskins: 0-16 (bet the house on the under at 6). A John Beck/Rex Grossman QB battle? Yay!

North:
Green Bay Packers: 13-3 (bet the over on 11.5). I'm tempted to say stay away. I could see 11-5 for them.
Chicago Bears: 11-5 (bet the over on 8.5). Vegas is low on Chicago, no? I'd think 9-7 at worst.
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 (bet the over on 7). I've still got a soft spot for Donovan. Some wishful thinking here.
Detroit Lions: 6-10 (stay away; the line is 8). I actually like Detroit. But this division is brutal.

South:
New Orleans Saints: 12-4 (bet the over on 10). In my mind the NFC is Philly, GB & New Orleans this year.
Atlanta Falcons: 11-5 (stay away; the line is 10). I don't like Atlanta; I think they regress a little this season.
Carolina Panthers: 4-12 (stay away; the line is at 4.5). I hope Newton brought his Cammy Cam Juice.
Tampa Bay Bucs: 2-14 (bet the under on 8). Listen, they'll likely win more than 2 games, but not by much.

West:
St. Louis Rams: 9-7 (bet the over on 7.5). I love Bradford. I'm thinking playoffs this year; they're solid.
Arizona Cardinals: 9-7 (bet the over on 7). Fitzgerald's gotta be thrilled to have an actual QB again.
San Francisco 49ers: 9-7 (bet the over on 7.5). 3 teams over .500 in the NFC West?!? It can't be!
Seattle Seahawks: 5-11 (stay away; the line's at 6). Tavaris Jackson is awful. I'm sorry, but... no.

AFC
East:
New York Jets: 13-3 (bet the over on 10). Probably a little high, but I think Sanchez will have a nice season.
New England Patriots: 13-3 (bet the over on 11.5). This division race will be awesome. Two great teams.
Buffalo Bills: 6-10 (stay away; the line is 5.5). I don't know what to make of Buffalo. They're so boring.
Miami Dolphins: 5-11 (bet the under on 7.5). Who thinks the Dolphins will be good? Why is that line so high?

North:
Pittsburgh Steelers: 14-2 (bet the over on 10.5). I'm unusually high on Pittsburgh. I like their defense a lot.
Baltimore Ravens: 13-3 (bet the over on 10.5). Cut and paste the above statement. But, Big Ben > Flacco.
Cleveland Browns: 2-14 (bet the under on 6.5). It feels like Cleveland is in a perpetual state of rebuilding.
Cincinnati Bengals: 1-15 (bet the under on 5.5). This team is A-W-F-U-L. But they're young. Really young.

South:
Indianapolis Colts: 12-4 (bet the over on 9.5). I'll never bet against Peyton Manning. They're not done yet.
Houston Texans: 12-4 (bet the over on 8.5). This one was the most surprising. I apparently love Houston.
Tennessee Titans: 5-11 (bet the under on 7). Meh. 36 year-old Matt Hasselbeck doesn't inspire excitement.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-13 (bet the under on 6.5). So long, Jack Del Rio. Your run was...uh...existent?

West:
San Diego Chargers: 12-4 (bet the over on 10). I'm not in love with this team. I think it must be Norv Turner.
Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (stay away; the line is at 8). They're a very average team. Mediocrity at its best.
Denver Broncos: 3-13 (stay away; the line is at 5.5). Can we stop pretending Tim Tebow is good yet?
Oakland Raiders: 3-13 (bet the under on 7). The person I missed the most during the NFL lockout? Al.

Well, there you have it, boys and girls. Do with it what you will. I can't even begin to express how excited I am that football is back. I've watched parts of 5 preseason games already. Which is 5 more than the average year. I'm literally drooling just thinking about the regular season. In fact, I think I better finish up this post; I might need a little alone time. Just me, my computer and this webpage.

*All win totals are taken from sportsbook.com

Football!!! There Will Actually Be Football!!!!

For the past 5 years or so, I have printed off the entire NFL schedule when it is announced in April, and predict every single one of the 512 games in the regular season. Each year, I go through the depth charts of every team, and give them grades, average them and have a score for each team. Using that score, I play out each game (giving some weight to home-field advantage), and come up with a record for each team.

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to do that in April of this year (or May or June or July...), due to the NFL lockout. But, after a hectic week or two of free agency (Nnamdi!!!!), I've got the schedule printed out and ready to go. I'll have multiple posts over the next few days as I go through the schedule itself, but today's posts will be a chart of my grades for each team. Keep in mind that this is not an exact science; while I'd ideally weight offense and defense equally, as well as include some other intangible aspects to the teams, this is the system I've used over the past few years, and it works for me.

Here's how it works: there are 8 categories (quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers, secondary, and coaching/special teams). Each team will receive a grade for each category, which will correspond to a numerical value. These values will be added up for one total grade given to each team. Grades can range from an F (worth 0 points) to an A (worth 11 points). Therefore, the highest possible grade a team could have would be an 88. Now, let's get to the grades:

AFC:

• Buffalo Bills- 57: QB (B-/C+); RB (C+); WR (B-); OL (B-); DL (B-); LB (B); S (B+/B); C/ST (B-)
• Miami Dolphins- 57: QB (C+); RB (C+); WR (B/B-); OL (B+); DL (C+); LB (B+/B); S (B); C/ST (C+)
• New England Patriots- 66.5: QB (A/A-); RB (C+/C); WR (B-); OL (A-/B+); DL (B); LB (B+/B); S (B/B-); C/ST (A-)
• New York Jets- 68: QB (B); RB (B/B-); WR (B); OL (B+); DL (B-); LB (A-/B+); S (A-); C/ST (B+)
• Baltimore Ravens- 67.5: QB (B/B-); RB (B); WR (B-); OL (B+); DL (A-/B+); LB (B+); S (B+/B); C/ST (B+)
• Cincinnati Bengals- 48.5: QB (C); RB (C+/C); WR (C+); OL (B-/C+); DL (B-); LB (B-/C+); S (C+); C/ST (C+)
• Cleveland Browns- 52: QB (C+/C); RB (B-/C+); WR (C+); OL (C+); DL (C+); LB (B/B-); S (B); C/ST (B-/C+)
• Pittsburgh Steelers- 72: QB (B+); RB (B+); WR (B); OL (B+/B); DL (B+); LB (A-/B+); S (A-/B+); C/ST (A-/B+)
• Houston Texans- 65: QB (B); RB (B+); WR (A-); OL (B-); DL (B/B-); LB (B+); S (B/B-); C/ST (B-)
• Indianapolis Colts- 69: QB (A-); RB (B); WR (B+); OL (B+); DL (B+); LB (B); S (B-); C/ST (B+)
• Jacksonville Jaguars- 55.5: QB (C+); RB (A-/B+); WR (B-); OL (C+); DL (B-); LB (C+); S (B-); C/ST (B-)
• Tennessee Titans- 57.5: QB (B-); RB (A-); WR (C+); OL (B-/C+); DL (C+); LB (B-); S (B); C/ST (B-)
• Denver Broncos- 58: QB (B/B-); RB (B/B-); WR (B/B-); OL (B-); DL (B); LB (B-); S (B/B-); C/ST (C+)
• Kansas City Chiefs- 64: QB (B-); RB (B+/B); WR (B); OL (B); DL (B/B-); LB (B); S (B+); C/ST (B)
• Oakland Raiders- 56.5: QB (B-/C+); RB (B/B-); WR (B-/C+); OL (C+); DL (B); LB (B); S (C+); C/ST (B)
• San Diego Chargers- 67: QB (A-/B+); RB (B-/C+); WR (A-/B+); OL (A-); DL (B/B-); LB (B); S (B); C/ST (B)

NFC:

• Dallas Cowboys- 65: QB (B); RB (B-); WR (B); OL (B); DL (B); LB (A-/B+); S (B); C/ST (B+/B)
• New York Giants- 64: QB (B+/B); RB (B/B-); WR (B-); OL (B+); DL (B+/B); LB (B/B-); S (B); C/ST (B)
• Philadelphia Eagles- 69.5: QB (A-/B+); RB (B); WR (B+/B); OL (B/B-); DL (B+/B); LB (B); S (A/A-); C/ST (B+)
• Washington Redskins- 53.5: QB (C); RB (B-); WR (B-/C+); OL (C+); DL (C+); LB (B); S (B); C/ST (B-)
• Chicago Bears- 65.5: QB (B+/B); RB (B+/B); WR (B-); OL (B-); DL (B+); LB (B+/B); S (B); C/ST (B+)
• Detroit Lions- 61.5: QB (B-); RB (B-/C+); WR (A-); OL (B-); DL (A-/B+); LB (B-); S (B-/C+); C/ST (B)
• Green Bay Packers- 70.5: QB (A/A-); RB (B-); WR (A-/B+); OL (B+); DL (B+/B); LB (B+); S (B); C/ST (B+)
• Minnesota Vikings- 64: QB (B-/C+); RB (A-); WR (B); OL (B); DL (B+/B); LB (B/B-); S (B-); C/ST (B+/B)
• Atlanta Falcons- 65.5: QB (B+/B); RB (A-/B+); WR (B); OL (B-); DL (B+); LB (B-); S (B/B-); C/ST (B+)
• Carolina Panthers- 55.5: QB (C+/C); RB (B); WR (B-/C+); OL (B-); DL (B/B-); LB (B); S (B-/C+); C/ST (B-/C+)
• New Orleans Saints- 68: QB (A-); RB (B-); WR (B); OL (B+); DL (B); LB (B+/B); S (B); C/ST (A-/B+)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 56.5: QB (B/B-); RB (B-/C+); WR (B-); OL (B-/C+); DL (B-); LB (B-); S (B/B-); C/ST (B/B-)
• Arizona Cardinals- 63: QB (B-); RB (B-); WR (A-); OL (B-); DL (B); LB (B/B-); S (B); C/ST (B+/B)
• San Francisco 49ers- 61.5: QB (C+/C); RB (B+/B); WR (B+/B); OL (B); DL (B-/C+); LB (B+); S (B-/C+); C/ST (B+)
• Seattle Seahawks- 58.5: QB (C+/C); RB (B/B-); WR (B); OL (B+/B); DL (B-/C+); LB (B); S (B-); C/ST (B/B-)
• St. Louis Rams- 64: QB (B/B-); RB (A-/B+); WR (B/B-); OL (B-); DL (B); LB (B); S (B/B-); C/ST (B)

Once again, I'd like to emphasize that this isn't an exact science. These are based entirely on my opinions of these players/teams; however, I would like to mention that I considered players' ages, injury history and personalities, as well as backups at various positions (particularly quarterback). Expect another post in the next few days with regular season win totals, and possibly some gambling advice.

At least this one isn't as long as your average holdout.

“Holdout”. The word that owners in the NFL fear, and fans of the game hate. Holding out in the NFL is one of the biggest ways for a player to say, “Hey, look at me. I’m a selfish dick who doesn’t appreciate the fact that I was given the privilege to play in one of the greatest sports the world has ever seen”. Yet we continue to see players holdout, no matter how much time they have had in the league to grow up and appreciate the fact that they get to play in the NFL every Sunday.

Everybody remembers the Albert Haynesworth debacle. After agreeing to a seven year, $100 million deal with Haynesworth, the Redskins hired Mike Shanahan and switched to the 3-4 defense. Haynesworth didn’t think that he could showcase his talent at nose tackle and become known as the best defensive tackle in the game, but he didn’t want to be traded and give up his $21 million dollar bonus. So instead, he stayed in Washington, took his money, and didn’t play. Which didn’t ring well with other players. Eight years in the NFL, and you can’t just be glad you get to play? If he ever gets to play again, that is.

More frequently, it is the players who have been in the league for just a few years who holdout. Last year, fifth year player Vincent Jackson held out for ten games when he decided $3 million for one year wasn’t enough. In 1997, fifth year defensive lineman and three time pro bowler Sean Gilbert refused a five year, $20 million dollar deal with $5 million dollar signing bonus because he thought he deserved $22.5 million with an $8 million bonus over the same amount of time. When the Redskins decided instead to tag him as a franchise player, Gilbert held out the entire season.

Thirteen seasons later, Gilbert’s nephew decided to follow in the family’s footsteps. After two pro bowl appearances in his first three years, CB Darelle Revis held out until a week before the season opener because he wanted to renegotiate his contract. Revis missed three weeks of training camp his rookie year negotiating his contract, in which he managed to get himself more guaranteed money and a larger bonus by signing for the rookie maximum of six years. Of course his rookie money wasn’t enough, so Revis held out again at the beginning of 2010, the fourth season of his six year deal. After Rex Ryan dubbed him “the best defensive player in the league”, Revis wanted to be paid like it. So he took the $20 million dollars he was expected to be paid with the rest of his rookie contract and turned it into a seven year, $55 million dollar deal.

In 1993, another player with only three years of experience demanded to be the highest paid player at his position. In his first three seasons with Dallas, Emmitt Smith won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and led the league in rushing yards twice while making a total of $3 million dollars. After his third season, Smith wanted to be paid $8 million more than the Cowboys were willing to pay so he held out. After two embarrassing losses to start the season, Jerry Jones gave in and paid Smith $13.6 million over four years, making him the highest paid running back in NFL history. Did he deserve that contract at the time, in only his fourth year? Maybe, or maybe not. A Dallas Morning News poll showed that only 35 percent of fans supported Smith’s holdout and demands. Did he earn it? In retrospect, absolutely. He led Dallas to two Super Bowls rings in the next three years, leading the league in rushing during both of those seasons, and he has gone down in history as one of the best running backs ever. But in retrospect, everything is easier, right?

While holdouts bother me no matter who the player is, people can always argue that a player has earned the right to a bigger contract by proving their worth. Fair enough. But the hold outs that bother me the most are the rookie holdouts. Come on. You just fulfilled a dream, being drafted into the NFL. If you hold out as a rookie, you are one of two things. You are either a) arrogant as hell and think you are so good you need more money than everyone else or b) scared your talents won’t pan out in the NFL and you want guaranteed money fast before your short lived career comes to a screeching halt. Either way, I wouldn’t want you on my team.

Rookie example number one: Kelly Stouffer. There’s a good chance you haven’t heard of him. Stouffer was drafted sixth overall in the 1987 draft, but didn’t take a single snap with the St. Louis Cardinals his rookie year because of contract disputes. The Cardinals wanted to underpay him, his agents wanted to overpay him. Eventually, the Cardinals gave in and offered him what sixth overall picks would typically get ($1.8 over four years). But Stouffer’s agents advised him not to accept the deal, because QB’s are more important and deserve more. Stouffer sat out his rookie year, ended up being traded to the Seahawks, and finished his stellar five year career with a 51.5% completion rate, seven TD’s and nineteen INT’s.

Rookie example number two: Michael Crabtree. Yes, Al Davis made another “interesting” decision and took WR Darius Heyward-Bey over Michael Crabtree. Yes, Michael Crabtree was probably the better pick. And yes, EVERY mock draft had Crabtree has the first WR to be picked. But no, that does not mean you deserve to be paid like the mock drafts were real. Crabtree turned down $20 million because he wanted to be paid more than Heyward-Bey due to the fact that Crabtree believed he was the better receiver and should be paid like it. Had San Francisco agreed to Crabtree’s terms, he would be paid about $3 million more per year than Jerry Rice did in a single season. After missing the beginning of the season, Crabtree agreed to a six year deal worth $32 million (with a number of caveats). So far though, Crabtree is earning his money.

Oh, and ever heard of a guy named JaMarcus Russel? Let’s not go there.

Seriously? If a player is active for just three games in a single season, they are guaranteed at least $295,000 as a base salary. That is without any signing bonuses, incentive bonuses, or endorsement deals. That’s more than a surgeon makes after fifteen years of training (if you ignore the debts from med school!).

Even with all my whining, however, there is one holdout this year that has me reconsidering my eternal damnation of holdouts. The Philadelphia Eagles young star WR DeSean Jackson has been noticeably absent from team workouts at the beginning of this season. He has already gotten off on the right foot in my opinion by doing it quietly. The media has picked up on it, but this potential holdout has not garnered the same attention as, say, this guy. By being so professional with his holdout, I actually care to see why he wants more money. And I might not be opposed to him getting it. Why?

Well, ever heard of J.T. O’Sullivan? Maybe you have, maybe you haven’t. Drafted out of UC Davis in the sixth round of the 2002 NFL Draft, O’Sullivan led a career of record breaking mediocrity. He holds the NCAA record for most touchdown passes in a playoff game with six against Mesa St. Oh yeah, I guess I forgot to mention that UC Davis is Division II. He also set an NFL record in just eleven years in the league. Most teams played for in a career. Take that one to the Hall of Fame. But why do I bring up the nomadic O’Sullivan?

This season, DeSean Jackson is scheduled to make $555,000. J.T O’Sullivan made more than that in 2007 ($595,000), 2008 ($605,000), and in 2009 ($750,000). In those three years, O’Sullivan played in sixteen games, starting only half of them. His numbers: 145 completions in 257 attempts (56.4%), nine TD’s, thirteen INT’s, and thirty eight sacks. Not the numbers you’d expect to see from a man making more than a two time pro-bowl WR.

(WARNING- STATISTICS ALERT!)

And the numbers from DeSean Jackson? In 2009, Jackson was top ten in receiving yards, receiving TD’s, receiving yards per game, and non-offensive TD’s. He was third in yards per touch and punt return yards, second in yards per reception, and led the league in yards per punt return and punt return TD’s. In 2010, he was top ten in receiving yards per game and yards per punt return, and he led the league in yards per catch. In his career in Philly, Jackson has been the leading scorer for the Eagles (excluding K David Akers).

Let’s make some comparisons to some of the highest paid WR’s in the NFL, shall we? Since Jackson joined the league in 2008:

Greg Jennings: 12% of team points, 17% of points from TD’s. 2011 Salary: $2.7M

Chad Ochocinco: 12% of team points, 18% of points from TD’s. 2011 Salary: $6M

Andre Johnson: 13.4% of team points, 19.4% of points from TD’s. 2011 Salary: $6M.

Steve Smith: 10% of team points, 15% of points from TD’s. 2011 Salary: $7M.

DeSean Jackson: 11.3% of team points, 17% of points from TD’s. 2011 Salary: $550,000.

Granted, other WR have been in the league longer and have proven their worth and consistency. But Jackson has also started to do that. He has big play potential as both a WR and a punt returner, which none of the other guys on that list above can claim. Sure, he made a little mistake his rookie year, but he made his mark and stamped himself a bigger contract last year against the Giants.

And to just to make it a little more meaningful, let’s compare Steve Smith and DeSean Jackson a little deeper. Smith made less money than Jackson in his first three years, but did manage to get a new contract in his fourth year (six years, $27M). But in their first three years, Jackson had 999 more receiving yards than Smith (the punt return numbers were pretty even). Going into his fourth year, wouldn’t you want a player like DeSean Jackson to be happy and keep making those big plays if he were on your team? I would.

According to eaglescap.com (the “First site on the internet devoted to tracking salary cap numbers for the Philadelphia Eagles”!), the Eagles have close to $4M left for the 2011 salary cap. Give Jackson some more money. I’m not saying the Eagles should make him the highest paid NFL WR, or even close to it. But as one of your teams best playmakers (behind only Vick, maybe), he deserves more than $550,000. Re-sign him now before he can even consider offers from other teams in free agency. I’m not an Eagles fan, but I would not want to see a player like that leave my team because he was grossly underpaid. If I were DeSean Jackson, I'd give up the holdout. He's made his point, his team has a great chance at winning the Super Bowl this year, and he's gonna play well enough to earn the big contract next year. I trust Andy Reid as a coach, and I know he will make it work. But Jackson is being very professional with his holdout right now. Do the same and be expedient with his paycheck.

Western Conference Finals: Mavericks vs. Thunder

Following the surprising first round upset of the Grizzlies over the Spurs, it was clear that these playoffs would not be as predictable as the NBA playoffs typically are. Few experts thought the Mavericks would even beat the Lakers, but Dirk Nowitzki put up an outstanding four-game stretch, outplaying everyone on the court, including Kobe Bryant.  The Mavs' impressive sweep of the two-time defending champions has led many to pick them over the Thunder, who struggled through a tough seven-game series with the eighth seeded Grizzlies. Once again, I have a very difficult time picking a winner in this series, so I decided to analyze the match-ups.

Point Guard
Jason Kidd vs. Russell Westbrook:
While I'm sure having over a week to rest while awaiting Oklahoma City will be beneficial to the Mavs' 38 year-old point guard, there is no doubt that at this point in their careers, Westbrook is the better player. Kidd has no chance to defend the younger, quicker Westbrook, but does have the veteran knowledge to possibly force him into making some poor decisions. Still, if Westbrook can channel his performance in Game 7 against Memphis (where he nearly put up a triple-double before the fourth quarter began), he could give the Thunder a huge edge in this series.
Advantage: Thunder

Shooting Guard
DeShawn Stevenson vs. Thabo Sefolosha:
Neither of these players are household names, and most of the country probably would not have even heard of Stevenson if it weren't for his absurd neck tattoo; however, both will play valuable roles in this series, as they will be asked to defend the other team's most dangerous guard. Stevenson will likely be checking Westbrook and James Harden, while Sefolosha would try to prevent Jason Terry from putting up 32 points, as he did in Game 4 against the Lakers. Stevenson can be dangerous from the three-point line as well.
Advantage: Mavs

Small Forward
Shawn Marion vs. Kevin Durant:
Durant has led the league in scoring the past two seasons, and is probably one of the purest shooters in the league. At 33, Marion is past his prime, and has averaged less than 10 points per game. Given Durant's length and skill set, it is difficult to envision Marion being to limit him much, but, like Kidd, he could be able to coax Durant into making some mistakes. Still, the man has averaged 28 points and 7.5 rebounds per game so far this postseason.
Advantage: Thunder

Power Forward
Dirk Nowitzki vs. Serge Ibaka:
Dirk has been one of the most difficult players to cover in the NBA for a decade, and has been probably the most impressive playoff performer thus far. He has averaged 26.5 points per game in the playoffs, and dominated a Los Angeles Lakers team that boasted one of the best front-courts in the league. Ibaka is nowhere near the player that Dirk is, at least at this point in his career, but he is an excellent defender, and the leading shot-blocker in the playoffs (3.8 blocks per game). If anyone is capable of slowing Dirk down, I would think a combination of Ibaka, Durant and Nick Collison (among others) would be a good bet.
Advantage: Mavs

Center
Tyson Chandler vs. Kendrick Perkins:
Perkins hasn't put up huge numbers since coming over from Boston, but his presence in the paint has been critical to the Thunder's success. I would expect him to score more than the 4.7 points per game he's averaged so far this postseason, but would also look for him to clog up the lane and prevent too much penetration (cue Michael Scott). Like Perkins, Chandler has not been that statistically impressive since coming to the Dallas this past offseason; however, he has provided an offensive threat down low which is an important role given the nature of Nowitzki's game.
Advantage: Mavs

Bench
Terry, Barea, Stojakovic, etc. vs. Harden, Collison, Maynor, etc.:
Jason Terry's huge Game 4 against L.A. was a reminder of how dangerous of a scorer he can be, and you can ask Andrew Bynum what he thinks about J.J. Barea. The Mavs' bench was a large part of the reason why they were able to take out the Lakers so easily.  Meanwhile, James Harden and the Thunder bench have done an outstanding job of allowing Westbrook and Durant to get some rest in their series against Memphis.  In particular, the Thunder's front-court of Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed was almost equally effective against the Grizzlies' Zach Randolph as their starters were. Both teams can go nine or ten players deep.
Advantage: Thunder

Coaching
Rick Carlisle vs. Scott Brooks:
Carlisle has done an excellent job as the Maverick's head coach since taking over for Avery Johnson in 2008. His game-plan helped the Mavs dominate the Lakers in a series in which they had arguably only one of the five best players. On the other hand Scott Brooks has come under some criticism for the way his point guard has played, and his seeming inability to get the ball in Kevin Durant's hands. While some of this criticism is fair, Brooks has helped this team jump from the bottom of the Western conference to 55 wins in only two seasons.
Advantage: Mavs

Prediction:
I will unabashedly be rooting for Kevin Durant and the Thunder, but overall, the Mavericks are the more complete team at this point. I believe Dallas will win this series in seven games, in large part due to great performances by Dirk Nowitzki. Don't be surprised if Durant puts up several 30-point games, or if Westbrook gets another triple-double, but in the end, the Mavericks will prevail.

Eastern Conference Finals: Bulls vs. Heat

Since the Celtics traded away their starting center for a role player in February, it became relatively clear that the two most talented teams in the Eastern Conference were the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. After working their way through two series apiece, these two teams will look to establish themselves as the best team in the Eastern Conference, for this year and beyond. Since the regular season was completed, I have been struggling with which team I thought was more likely to win the conference. Now that they face each other, I have become even less sure about which team is superior. Because the playoffs are all about match-ups, I thought I would delve a little deeper into each of the positions in order to determine who will win this series.

Point Guard

Derrick Rose vs. Mike Bibby:

The Heat will likely throw many different defenses at the MVP of the league in order to slow him down, including Bibby, Mario Chalmers, Dwayne Wade, and even LeBron James. However, after seeing Rose light up the Atlanta Hawks defense over the past 6 games (he averaged 29.8 points and 9.8 assists per game in that series), there is little doubt that he will find a way to create points for the Bulls. Meanwhile, the 33 year-old Bibby averaged just 3.6 points per game in the 5-game series against the Celtics.

Advantage: Bulls

Shooting Guard

Keith Bogans vs. Dwayne Wade:

Once again, there can be little debate as to which of these two players is more talented or is likely to have a larger impact. Still, Bogans is a talented defender, and I think he will be able to slow Wade down (perhaps to something under the 30.2 points per game he averaged against Boston), even though he would likely be the MVP of the Playoffs if it were given out today.

Advantage: Heat

Small Forward

Luol Deng vs. Lebron James:

LeBron James, almost undoubtedly, is the most talented player in the NBA right now. At his best, he could take over this series and score 30 points per game, no matter who is defending him. On the other hand, he is also capable of going into a funk and shooting 38% while scoring 15 points, as he did in Game 3 against Boston. Meanwhile, Luol Deng is an excellent defender, who averaged over 17 points per game in the regular season.

Advantage: Heat

Power Forward

Carlos Boozer vs. Chris Bosh:

Both were huge free-agent signings this past off-season, but each has gotten some heat (no pun intended) for their performance so far this postseason. Because neither is known for their defense (which is more difficult to quantify) it seems only fair to look at their statistics to determine who wins this particular match-up: Boozer averaged 17.5 and 9.6 in the regular season, and 11.8 and 9.5 in the playoffs. Bosh, on the other hand averaged 19.8 and 9.0 in the regular season and 16.3 and 9.6 in the playoffs.

Advantage: Heat

Center

Joakim Noah vs. Joel Anthony:

Noah has struggled offensively in the playoffs so far, but he is an outstanding rebounder and defender, which will be a huge part of this match-up. He will certainly be asked to help out with defending Wade, James and Bosh, and his rebounding skills will be of the utmost importance if Chicago hopes to win this series. Noah averaged 10.4 rebounds per game in both the regular season and playoffs, showing consistency in that area. While Anthony is not asked to fill as big of a role as Noah, it is clear that even his 5.0 points and 6.2 rebounds per game that he averaged against Boston do not compare.

Advantage: Bulls

Bench

Brewer, Gibson, Korver, etc. vs. Chalmers, Jones, Ilgauskas, etc.:

Neither team's bench has been overly impressive this postseason, but in Chicago's Game 5 against Atlanta, Ronnie Brewer, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik each played over 20 minutes (Gibson and Asik playing most of the 4th quarter), as the Bulls pulled away late. That impressive stretch gives me more faith in the Bulls' bench than the Heat's.

Advantage: Bulls

Coaching

Tom Thibodeau vs. Erik Spoelstra

While the Heat faltered early in the season leading to constant speculation about the security of Spoelstra's job, Thibodeau, with the help of his MVP point guard helped keep his team near the top of the Eastern Conference standings with out Boozer and Noah for much of the early part of the season. Adding in his reputation as one of the best defensive coaches in the NBA, and it is not hard to give the edge to Chicago here.

Advantage: Bulls

Prediction:

After considering all of the above information as well as the fact that Chicago will get one extra game at home, I will pick the Chicago Bulls to reach the NBA Finals in a hard-fought 7-game series. Derrick Rose will get the bulk of the credit for this series win (as well he should), but it will be the outstanding team defense that the Bulls have perfected over the course of their 62-win season that will be the deciding factor.

Run Ricky Run... Into the Hall of Fame?

I'll be completely honest: I am a huge fan of Ricky Williams.  I've always enjoyed watching him play, and even hoped to see him in my own team's colors.  The Philadelphia Eagles had the opportunity to the 1998 Heisman trophy winner in the subsequent NFL draft, but opted for Syracuse's Donovan McNabb.  Eagles' fans were not thrilled with the decision at the time, to say the least.  Despite having a budding young running back in Duce Staley, Philadelphia wanted the rookie sensation from Texas to bring life back to the 3-13 football team.  McNabb ended up being the face of the franchise for the next decade, and the team was probably right to select him (though it is sad that this picture couldn't have been with Andy Reid, rather than Mike Ditka).  Still, it would have been very interesting to see how both Ricky and the Eagles would have been different if they had selected him.

As it turned out, he was chosen by New Orleans with the fifth pick in that draft, after they traded all of their picks that year as well as two from the next year to the Redskins.  His time with the Saints was somewhat disappointing, as he fought through the pressures of expectations as well as injuries.  When he was traded to the Dolphins, he began to flourish, before positive drug tests began to take their toll.  Right before the 2004 season, Williams retired unexpectedly and in the prime of his career (coming off three straight 1,200-yard seasons).While I was disappointed (and confused) when he left the game, I respected Williams for being able to ignore how people might view his decision or any other criticisms they might have about his character.  He didn't care what people might say about him leaving all that money on the table; his heart was no longer into football, and he didn't see any reason to risk his body by continuing to play the game.  As a football fan, I was saddened by his departure, but as a human being, I understand his decision to leave that life, with which he was no longer comfortable, behind him.  So, when I heard about ESPN's 30-for-30 documentary, Run Ricky Run, I was excited and curious about what Ricky experienced in his time away from the game.  I watched it for the second time just hours ago, and I found myself wishing him to the greatness from which he had fallen so far.  Perhaps with that thought in mind, I began to try to put Ricky's [admittedly unfinished] career into perspective.

Here are Ricky Williams career rushing statistics from pro-football-reference.com:

131 games; 2,323 attempts; 9,565 yards; 64 touchdowns; 4.1 yards-per-attempt; and 73 yards-per-game.

While I understand that Williams will be 34 years old at the beginning of next season (assuming there is a next season), people tend to discount the fact that he has only played in ten NFL seasons, including the one game he played in 2005.  Projecting Williams current statistics out for another four seasons, and assuming he gets 550 more carries at a conservative 3.5 yards-per-attempt, along with a conservative 14 more touchdowns, here is what his career would end up looking like:

2,873 attempts; 11,490 yards; and 78 touchdowns

Now, let's look at the careers of three NFL Hall of Fame running backs:

Thurman Thomas (1988-2000): 2,877 attempts; 12, 074 yards; and 65 touchdowns

Marcus Allen (1982-1997): 3,022 attempts; 12,243 yards; and 123 touchdowns

Tony Dorsett (1977-1988): 2,936 attempts; 12,739 yards; and 77 touchdowns

I realize that these other running backs were decent receivers, have been to a combined seven Super Bowls (with Allen and Dorsett each winning one), and that none of them have any of the baggage that Williams has.  However, if you look at those career statistics again, particularly comparing Thomas with the possible projected Williams career, it's not impossible to think that they could be together in the Hall of Fame.  Personally, I would love to see him fulfill the potential that he showed as a Texas Longhorn in 1998, as a New Orleans Saint in 2001, as a Miami Dolphin in 2002, and that he would have shown in his career as a Philadelphia Eagle.  Both the football fan and human being in me would applaud if Ricky could run all the way to Canton, Ohio.

Packers Vs. Bears; The Game of the Week

One for the Ages

Dick Butkis, Vince Lombardi. Mike Ditka, Curly Lambeau. Lambeau Field, Soldier Field. A combined fifty-five Hall of Famers. More NFL titles than any other two teams in history. More NFL titles between the two than any other division has in total. A combined winning percentage of .569, the highest winning percentage of any two teams in the same division. A head to head record of 91-83-6, separated by only 112 points. The most prolific rivalry in all of the NFL. Bears vs. Packers. Yet this NFC championship game is receiving less hype than last week's Jets vs. Patriots match-up. And I find that to be a load of BS.

This match-up has history. This match-up has two of the best defenses in the NFL. This match-up has excitement (Cutler vs. Rodgers, Urlacher vs. Hawk, Hester vs. the Packers Special Teams). Dating back to 1921, these two teams have played each other more times than any two other teams in the history of the NFL. But unlike the Red Sox vs. Yankees rivalry, these two teams rarely meet up in the post-season. In fact, they have only made the playoffs in the same season three times, and only once have they played head to head in the post-season. But that only makes this game that much more exciting.

Great History

I am excited to see what history will be made between these two teams on Sunday, as Bears vs. Packers games have had some of the most exciting moments in history. In 1924, this matchup resulted in the first ejection of players for fighting, after punches were thrown. In 1933, the only previous playoff meeting between the two, the Bears won 33-14 on their way to the NFL title. In 1964, the Packers became only the fifth team to attempt the rare "fair catch kick". A little known rule, the fair catch kick allows a team to kick a field goal from the spot of a fair catch, with the defense lining up ten yards downfield. This allows the kicker to not have to line up behind the offensive or defensive line, and be worried about a block. Paul Hornung made the kick as the first half expired, en route to a Packers victory. But Chicago got their revenge four years later, as Mac Percival pulled off a game winning fair catch kick against the Packers with twenty seconds left. These two teams seem to live by, "Anything you can do, I can do better". In 1932, the Packers beat the Bears in Chicago by a score of 2-0, one of five games in NFL history to conclude with such a score. The most recent? Six years later, the Bears did the same thing to the Packers at Green Bay.

In one of the most exciting finishes in a Bears-Packers game, the Packers Chester Marcol came into the game in overtime in an attempt to kick the game winning field goal. The Bears managed to block the kick, but the ball bounced straight into the arms of Marcol who ran the ball in for the game winning touchdown.

Recent Big Game History

No matter how good the history is, nothing can predict a winner better than recent statistics. Since 1991, the Bears and Packers have played late in the season (after week 11) a total of 18 times when there has been at least some level of importance to the game. I ranked the games based on how important they were to each times playoff outcome, and there ended up being five games in which both teams were in the playoff hunt, and the head to head match-up helped determine who made the playoffs.

December 5, 1993 Week 14

Played in Chicago, the Bears came into the game 6-5, and the Packers came in 7-4. The Bears pulled off a victory 30-17 in this big game match-up, leaving both teams at 7-5. This match-up was important because it kept the Bears in the playoff hunt for a while longer. The Packers, at the time, were leading the division, as well as the head-to-head against the Lions. At the end of the season, the Packers ended up finishing one game back of the Lions, and had to settle for the Wildcard. The managed to beat the Lions in the Wildcard game, but went on to lose to the #1 seeded Dallas Cowboys.

December 11, 1994 Week 15

Coming into Week 15, both teams were 7-6 and one game behind the 8-5 Vikings. The Packers took advantage of the opportunity and blew out the Bears at home by a final score of 40-3. The Vikings also won in Week 15, and went on to win the Division. However, both the Packers and the Bears made the playoffs with the Wildcard. The win in Week 15, however, gave the Packers a higher seed then the Bears. Both managed to make it past the first round, but the Packers would fall to Dallas and the Bears to the eventual Super Bowl Champion 49ers.

November 12, 1995 Week 11

The Packers were behind in the division by one game to the Bears. The 6-3 Bears came into Lambeau Field with the opportunity to put the 5-4 Packers just a little bit further in the rear-view mirror. In a hard fought game, the Packers managed to hold on to the lead 35-28, and tie the division. The Packers would only lose one more game on their way to the division title, as the Bears fell to 9-7 on the year and missed the Wildcard by one game.

December 9, 2001 Week 13

Again, the Bears had to go into Lambeau Field late in the season up on the Packers by one game. At 9-2, the Bears were fighting with the St. Louis Rams for the #1 seed and home field advantage. But Brett Favre would lead the Packers out of Lambeau with a 17-7 win, and the Packers tied up the division at 9-3. The Packers would again only lose one more game, but the Bears won out and won the division by one game. The Packers would win the Wildcard round game against the 49ers, but both teams would lose in the Divisional round.

January 2, 2011 Week 17

In the most recent (and one of the most playoff-deciding) games in the rivalry, the Bears traveled to Lambeau with their playoff seed already decided; however the Packers needed a win against the division leading Bears to make the Wildcard. The Bears starters would play most off the game, but the Packers won a defensive game 10-3 to eke their way into the playoffs. They now match up against the Bears in the playoffs. Will the Bears regret not knocking out their rivals when they had the chance?

In big games over the last twenty years, the Packers have the advantage. They also have the psychological edge from the week 17 victory. But who holds the most telling, the statistical edge?

Sunday Afternoon Showdown

There are three key match-ups this weekend that will determine the outcome of the game. Rodgers vs. Cutler, Bears O-Line vs. Packers front seven, and Devin Hester vs. the Packers Special Teams. If the Packers kick to Hester, he has the capability to change a game. The Packers need to kick it out of bounds, and make Cutler beat them with his arm. If the Bears can't figure out the blitzing scheme of Dom Capers, Cutler will be looking for the hit instead of the receivers downfield, and this game will become reminiscent of the early season Bears.

I think what will have the biggest impact on the outcome will be the quarterback battle. Both defenses will show up, there are no worries about that. But how easily the quarterbacks adjust to the defense is going to be key. Let's take a look at Rodgers and Cutler, and see who is going to be the game changer, shall we?

Cutler has been in Chicago for two years now, and has played the Packers four times. In Rodgers' career in Green Bay, he has played the Bears six times:

Passer Rating: Cutler has a passer rating of 61.0 in those four games, twice finishing a game with a rating of 43.0. Aaron Rodgers' passer rating against the Bears is below his career average, but still up at a 92.8. In home games against the Packers, Cutler has a 78.7 Passer Rating. On the road, Rodgers is still higher at 89.7.

Advantage: Rodgers on the road

Yards Per Game: Jay Cutler's numbers are relatively consistent in YPG both at home and on the road. In the last four games, he is averaging 218 ypg, and at home in those games, 215 ypg. Rodgers is actually doing a little better on the road. In his career vs. the Bears, he is averaging 232 ypg; in his career at Soldier field? 252 ypg.

Advantage: Rodgers on the road

TD's/INT's: Cutler's numbers don't look so good on this one, averaging one TD and 2.25 picks in the last four games against the Pack. But at home, Cutler is averaging 1.5 TD's and 1.5 picks. Rodgers, again being more consistent, is averaging 1.17 TDs and .7 picks per game, and just a slight drop to 1 TD per game on the road.

*Interesting note- Rodgers has not thrown more than one INT in a game against the Bears. Cutler has more than one INT in three of four games. In the cold weather, and in a defensive matchup with some great offenses, turnovers will help determine this game.

Advantage: Rodgers on the road (barely)

One more thing to note. Cutler gets sacked an average of 3.5 times per game against the Packers, and Rodgers only 1.5. If the Packers can get to Cutler, and keep Rodgers safe, the Bears are going to have a hard time winning.

On A Roll

The stats that get me convinced though, are the numbers in the last 6 games for each QB:

Jay Cutler

Passer Rating: 85.9

Yards Per Game: 206

TD's: 9

INT's: 6

Sacks: 18

Aaron Rodgers*

Passer Rating: 109.8

Yards Per Game: 254

TD's: 14

INT's: 2

Sacks: 15

*By the way, this includes Week 14, where Rodgers got knocked out of the game in the second quarter, with a concussion.

In this match-up, you just can't go against Rodgers. In the playoffs, he has a 73% completion percentage, 323 ypg, 10 TD's, and 1 INT. Oh yeah, and a Passer Rating of 126.9. He's the only quarterback in history to have a Passer Rating over 120 in his first two playoff appearances, and he's done it now 3 times. I'd be willing to bet tomorrow makes it 4.

Some Predictions?

Rodgers: 285 Yards, 3 Total TD's, 1 INT

Cutler: 220 Yards, 2 TD's, 2 INTs

Devin Hester: 1 Punt return for TD

Clay Matthews: 1.5 Sacks, 8 Tackles

Final Score: Packers 34 Bears 24

One last thing to think about, if the Packers being on the road is making you think twice about a Green Bay victory: Since 1990, the Packers are 14-7 in Chicago. Go Pack.

See: [http://www.pro-football-reference.com]

[NFL.com]