While the NFL is my favorite sport, I am more than willing to admit that its post-season does not always provide a match-up of the two best teams for any given year. If the NFL employed a BCS style system, we'd all be getting pumped for a Falcons-Patriots Championship game, with everyone and their mother confident of a victory for the Golden Boy.
Instead, we got to witness one of the better defensive performances of recent post-season history in the Jets incredible upset of New England. Now, without getting into whether a Brady-less Super Bowl is good for the NFL [Hint: It is], there is no doubt that the four remaining teams could each provide their own interesting story-lines and drama to the first-ever Super Bowl in Jerry World.
Having said that, not all Super Bowls are created equal. For every incredible upset (Super Bowl III or Super Bowl XLII) and down-to-the-wire finish (Super Bowl XLIII), there have been some huge blowouts (Super Bowl XXIV) and boring snooze-fests (Super Bowl XL). With only two games left before this year's installment of America's biggest sporting event, here are the four potential match-ups (some of which are better than others).
Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh
Following the Jets upset of the Patriots on Sunday, these two teams certainly seem to be the best remaining teams. This match-up would lend itself to plenty of offense (Packers) versus defense (Steelers) story-lines, but Clay Matthews and the Packers' defense going against the Steelers' shaky offensive line would be the more important factor in this game, in my mind. Given the historic nature of each of these teams, and their rabid fan-bases, this would be quite an event down in Jerry World. Vegas believes this is the most likely match-up, and I tend to agree.
Predicted Spread: Green Bay -3.5. Particularly if the Packers beat the Bears handily on Sunday, and if Aaron Rodgers has a big game, it'd be hard for Vegas to make them the underdog in the Super Bowl. Rodgers has had a fantastic post-season thus far [more on this later in the week], and if he puts up even remotely comparable numbers, Green Bay will be the favorite. As for Pittsburgh, they would be coming off back-to-back hard-fought victories over defensive teams, and their offensive line is already in worse shape than Al Davis' forehead. Despite the fact that they'd be coming off three straight road playoff games, the Packers would likely be healthier and fresher. Regardless, there is no doubt in my mind that this would be a competitive game, and the football fan in me would be ridiculously excited to see this game.
Green Bay vs. New York
If the Jets were to make it to the Super Bowl, they would have had to face Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger (winners of six of the past nine Super Bowls) in their last three games, all on the road. I certainly don't envy that path, but having to face one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Aaron Rodgers in the Super Bowl would only be appropriate. In addition, their defense would get a rematch against one of the best offenses in the league, whom they played well against in week 8, though their offense provided no support whatsoever. Another interesting dynamic of this game is the fact that two six seeds would be facing off in the Super Bowl (which has never happened before). Add in Rex Ryan, Bart Scott, Clay Matthews and the emerging star Tramon Williams, and I don't think the media would have much trouble coming up with story-lines for this game.
Predicted Spread: Green Bay -7. As was the case for the match-up with Pittsburgh, this spread would be affected by the likelihood of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense having a big game, while the Jets would be coming off a gritty defensive battle with the Steelers. Pittsburgh is probably seen as a better team than New York, and throwing in the fact that the Steelers are a historically public team, it is likely that the difference in spread would be about three points from the Steelers to the Jets. As with the Packers-Steelers game, I feel that this would be a competitive game, though given Sanchez' youth and inconsistency do leave room for doubt. Overall, I can't imagine many non-Steelers/Bears fans being disappointed with this result.
Pittsburgh vs. Chicago
While the Bears are at home this weekend and the Jets are on the road, I get the feeling that more people would be surprised to see Chicago in the Super Bowl. It is likely due to how impressive the Packers have looked the past two weeks and the fact that the Jets have already gone on the road and taken down tough AFC teams. Having said that, if the Bears were to beat the Packers and advance to face the Steelers in the Super Bowl, it would actually provide a similar (albeit somewhat less interesting) match-up to Packers-Steelers. Like Green Bay, Chicago is also a storied franchise, with an exciting young quarterback and solid defense. This battle of two-seeds would be a good defensive struggle, though I doubt it would be as low-scoring as some might think.
Predicted Spread: Pittsburgh -6.5. Chicago has had an unusual season, in that they won some games they shouldn't have (see: Johnson, Calvin) and lost some games they shouldn't have (including Seattle @ Chicago Part 1). In light of that fact, I'm not sure Vegas knows exactly what to think of them. Admittedly, a win over the red-hot Packers would be extremely impressive, but I believe two weeks of people comparing them to the Steelers would leave little doubt as to who the better team is. Personally, I'd prefer to see the Packers face the Steelers than the Bears, but if Chicago were to beat Green Bay for the second time this season, it'd be difficult to say they weren't the better team.
New York vs. Chicago
What strikes me to most about this potential match-up is that it would pit the loudest team in the NFL against perhaps the quietest team in the playoffs. While the Jets have been in the national spotlight since HBO's "Hard Knocks," the Bears have been relatively under-the-radar all season. This contrast would likely be highlighted over the course of the two-week build-up to the Super Bowl, and I would be very interested to see if the Jets attempted to engage Jay Cutler and the Bears in any trash talk. Another intriguing element of this game is the fact that both quarterbacks have a history of inconsistency and multi-interception games, and both would be going against upper-echelon defenses.
Predicted Spread: New York -3. Though Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan are only in their second season together, going to two straight AFC Championship games and beating three of the league's best quarterbacks in consecutive weeks would help alleviate some of the concerns of making the Jets favorites in the Super Bowl. Combined with Cutler's lack of playoff experience and potential for off-games, I would be surprised if Chicago were not the underdog in this game. This game is clearly the least likely of the four, and I think Rex Ryan is more likely to challenge Wes Welker to a footrace than he is to go head-to-head with Lovie Smith in Dallas. Sorry, I couldn't resist...
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