Western Conference Finals: Mavericks vs. Thunder

Following the surprising first round upset of the Grizzlies over the Spurs, it was clear that these playoffs would not be as predictable as the NBA playoffs typically are. Few experts thought the Mavericks would even beat the Lakers, but Dirk Nowitzki put up an outstanding four-game stretch, outplaying everyone on the court, including Kobe Bryant.  The Mavs' impressive sweep of the two-time defending champions has led many to pick them over the Thunder, who struggled through a tough seven-game series with the eighth seeded Grizzlies. Once again, I have a very difficult time picking a winner in this series, so I decided to analyze the match-ups.

Point Guard
Jason Kidd vs. Russell Westbrook:
While I'm sure having over a week to rest while awaiting Oklahoma City will be beneficial to the Mavs' 38 year-old point guard, there is no doubt that at this point in their careers, Westbrook is the better player. Kidd has no chance to defend the younger, quicker Westbrook, but does have the veteran knowledge to possibly force him into making some poor decisions. Still, if Westbrook can channel his performance in Game 7 against Memphis (where he nearly put up a triple-double before the fourth quarter began), he could give the Thunder a huge edge in this series.
Advantage: Thunder

Shooting Guard
DeShawn Stevenson vs. Thabo Sefolosha:
Neither of these players are household names, and most of the country probably would not have even heard of Stevenson if it weren't for his absurd neck tattoo; however, both will play valuable roles in this series, as they will be asked to defend the other team's most dangerous guard. Stevenson will likely be checking Westbrook and James Harden, while Sefolosha would try to prevent Jason Terry from putting up 32 points, as he did in Game 4 against the Lakers. Stevenson can be dangerous from the three-point line as well.
Advantage: Mavs

Small Forward
Shawn Marion vs. Kevin Durant:
Durant has led the league in scoring the past two seasons, and is probably one of the purest shooters in the league. At 33, Marion is past his prime, and has averaged less than 10 points per game. Given Durant's length and skill set, it is difficult to envision Marion being to limit him much, but, like Kidd, he could be able to coax Durant into making some mistakes. Still, the man has averaged 28 points and 7.5 rebounds per game so far this postseason.
Advantage: Thunder

Power Forward
Dirk Nowitzki vs. Serge Ibaka:
Dirk has been one of the most difficult players to cover in the NBA for a decade, and has been probably the most impressive playoff performer thus far. He has averaged 26.5 points per game in the playoffs, and dominated a Los Angeles Lakers team that boasted one of the best front-courts in the league. Ibaka is nowhere near the player that Dirk is, at least at this point in his career, but he is an excellent defender, and the leading shot-blocker in the playoffs (3.8 blocks per game). If anyone is capable of slowing Dirk down, I would think a combination of Ibaka, Durant and Nick Collison (among others) would be a good bet.
Advantage: Mavs

Center
Tyson Chandler vs. Kendrick Perkins:
Perkins hasn't put up huge numbers since coming over from Boston, but his presence in the paint has been critical to the Thunder's success. I would expect him to score more than the 4.7 points per game he's averaged so far this postseason, but would also look for him to clog up the lane and prevent too much penetration (cue Michael Scott). Like Perkins, Chandler has not been that statistically impressive since coming to the Dallas this past offseason; however, he has provided an offensive threat down low which is an important role given the nature of Nowitzki's game.
Advantage: Mavs

Bench
Terry, Barea, Stojakovic, etc. vs. Harden, Collison, Maynor, etc.:
Jason Terry's huge Game 4 against L.A. was a reminder of how dangerous of a scorer he can be, and you can ask Andrew Bynum what he thinks about J.J. Barea. The Mavs' bench was a large part of the reason why they were able to take out the Lakers so easily.  Meanwhile, James Harden and the Thunder bench have done an outstanding job of allowing Westbrook and Durant to get some rest in their series against Memphis.  In particular, the Thunder's front-court of Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed was almost equally effective against the Grizzlies' Zach Randolph as their starters were. Both teams can go nine or ten players deep.
Advantage: Thunder

Coaching
Rick Carlisle vs. Scott Brooks:
Carlisle has done an excellent job as the Maverick's head coach since taking over for Avery Johnson in 2008. His game-plan helped the Mavs dominate the Lakers in a series in which they had arguably only one of the five best players. On the other hand Scott Brooks has come under some criticism for the way his point guard has played, and his seeming inability to get the ball in Kevin Durant's hands. While some of this criticism is fair, Brooks has helped this team jump from the bottom of the Western conference to 55 wins in only two seasons.
Advantage: Mavs

Prediction:
I will unabashedly be rooting for Kevin Durant and the Thunder, but overall, the Mavericks are the more complete team at this point. I believe Dallas will win this series in seven games, in large part due to great performances by Dirk Nowitzki. Don't be surprised if Durant puts up several 30-point games, or if Westbrook gets another triple-double, but in the end, the Mavericks will prevail.

Eastern Conference Finals: Bulls vs. Heat

Since the Celtics traded away their starting center for a role player in February, it became relatively clear that the two most talented teams in the Eastern Conference were the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. After working their way through two series apiece, these two teams will look to establish themselves as the best team in the Eastern Conference, for this year and beyond. Since the regular season was completed, I have been struggling with which team I thought was more likely to win the conference. Now that they face each other, I have become even less sure about which team is superior. Because the playoffs are all about match-ups, I thought I would delve a little deeper into each of the positions in order to determine who will win this series.

Point Guard

Derrick Rose vs. Mike Bibby:

The Heat will likely throw many different defenses at the MVP of the league in order to slow him down, including Bibby, Mario Chalmers, Dwayne Wade, and even LeBron James. However, after seeing Rose light up the Atlanta Hawks defense over the past 6 games (he averaged 29.8 points and 9.8 assists per game in that series), there is little doubt that he will find a way to create points for the Bulls. Meanwhile, the 33 year-old Bibby averaged just 3.6 points per game in the 5-game series against the Celtics.

Advantage: Bulls

Shooting Guard

Keith Bogans vs. Dwayne Wade:

Once again, there can be little debate as to which of these two players is more talented or is likely to have a larger impact. Still, Bogans is a talented defender, and I think he will be able to slow Wade down (perhaps to something under the 30.2 points per game he averaged against Boston), even though he would likely be the MVP of the Playoffs if it were given out today.

Advantage: Heat

Small Forward

Luol Deng vs. Lebron James:

LeBron James, almost undoubtedly, is the most talented player in the NBA right now. At his best, he could take over this series and score 30 points per game, no matter who is defending him. On the other hand, he is also capable of going into a funk and shooting 38% while scoring 15 points, as he did in Game 3 against Boston. Meanwhile, Luol Deng is an excellent defender, who averaged over 17 points per game in the regular season.

Advantage: Heat

Power Forward

Carlos Boozer vs. Chris Bosh:

Both were huge free-agent signings this past off-season, but each has gotten some heat (no pun intended) for their performance so far this postseason. Because neither is known for their defense (which is more difficult to quantify) it seems only fair to look at their statistics to determine who wins this particular match-up: Boozer averaged 17.5 and 9.6 in the regular season, and 11.8 and 9.5 in the playoffs. Bosh, on the other hand averaged 19.8 and 9.0 in the regular season and 16.3 and 9.6 in the playoffs.

Advantage: Heat

Center

Joakim Noah vs. Joel Anthony:

Noah has struggled offensively in the playoffs so far, but he is an outstanding rebounder and defender, which will be a huge part of this match-up. He will certainly be asked to help out with defending Wade, James and Bosh, and his rebounding skills will be of the utmost importance if Chicago hopes to win this series. Noah averaged 10.4 rebounds per game in both the regular season and playoffs, showing consistency in that area. While Anthony is not asked to fill as big of a role as Noah, it is clear that even his 5.0 points and 6.2 rebounds per game that he averaged against Boston do not compare.

Advantage: Bulls

Bench

Brewer, Gibson, Korver, etc. vs. Chalmers, Jones, Ilgauskas, etc.:

Neither team's bench has been overly impressive this postseason, but in Chicago's Game 5 against Atlanta, Ronnie Brewer, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik each played over 20 minutes (Gibson and Asik playing most of the 4th quarter), as the Bulls pulled away late. That impressive stretch gives me more faith in the Bulls' bench than the Heat's.

Advantage: Bulls

Coaching

Tom Thibodeau vs. Erik Spoelstra

While the Heat faltered early in the season leading to constant speculation about the security of Spoelstra's job, Thibodeau, with the help of his MVP point guard helped keep his team near the top of the Eastern Conference standings with out Boozer and Noah for much of the early part of the season. Adding in his reputation as one of the best defensive coaches in the NBA, and it is not hard to give the edge to Chicago here.

Advantage: Bulls

Prediction:

After considering all of the above information as well as the fact that Chicago will get one extra game at home, I will pick the Chicago Bulls to reach the NBA Finals in a hard-fought 7-game series. Derrick Rose will get the bulk of the credit for this series win (as well he should), but it will be the outstanding team defense that the Bulls have perfected over the course of their 62-win season that will be the deciding factor.