Regular Season Win Totals (Sort of)

Let me preface this post by saying that the actual numerical win total that will beside each team is unimportant. That seems counter-intuitive given that this post is about predicting regular season win totals, but use it as more of a benchmark. The main purposes of this post are to compare the win totals I've predicted to those that Vegas has put up and see where they differ. If it helps someone make some money along the way, all the better.

In my last post I gave each team a numerical score and mentioned that I would use them to play out the entire season. Allow me to explain my system a little further: For each game on the 2011-2012 schedule, I wrote down the home team and whichever team received a higher score from me in my last post. If both were the same team, I gave them the victory. If not, I wrote down the difference in the two teams scores. If it was less than 5, the home team won; if it was greater, the away team. I realize that this seems overly simple, but the truth of the matter is that home field advantage is extremely significant. For the most part, this also ensured that evenly matched teams in the same division would split their two match-ups.

To clarify a little further: The highest score I gave to any team was a 72 to the Steelers. Because of the nature of my scoring system, I necessarily predicted that they would go 8-0 at home. Because they have a higher score than anyone, they will always win their home games. Of course, in actuality, I realize that they could well go 5-3 or 6-2 at home this season; however, they will also probably win an away game or two that I am predicting they will lose. In the end, I'd imagine it will even out. Similarly, I gave the lowest score (48.5) to Cincinnati. Once again, I necessarily had them going 0-8 on the road. Because they will never have a higher score than their opponent, they can not get a road win using my system. Again, I recognize the flaws in the system.

One last thing before I get to the predictions: The tendency in my system is that the numbers will go to the extremes. You will see many high numbers and low numbers. For this reason, I encourage you to focus less on the actual number values and more on my commentary afterwards. For example, I have the Redskins going 0-16. In actuality, I don't think the Redskins will go winless this year, but I would be willing to put a lot of money on the under of 6 wins.

[Insert Rex Grossman joke here]

Now, without further ado, here are my regular season win totals for the upcoming NFL season*:

NFC
East:
Philadelphia Eagles: 14-2 (bet the over on 10.5). Yes, I know I'm a homer. Get over it.
Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (stay away; the line is at 9 wins). I'm surprised how high I am on the Cowboys.
New York Giants: 7-9 (bet the under on 9.5). I really didn't like their offseason. They didn't get better.
Washington Redskins: 0-16 (bet the house on the under at 6). A John Beck/Rex Grossman QB battle? Yay!

North:
Green Bay Packers: 13-3 (bet the over on 11.5). I'm tempted to say stay away. I could see 11-5 for them.
Chicago Bears: 11-5 (bet the over on 8.5). Vegas is low on Chicago, no? I'd think 9-7 at worst.
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 (bet the over on 7). I've still got a soft spot for Donovan. Some wishful thinking here.
Detroit Lions: 6-10 (stay away; the line is 8). I actually like Detroit. But this division is brutal.

South:
New Orleans Saints: 12-4 (bet the over on 10). In my mind the NFC is Philly, GB & New Orleans this year.
Atlanta Falcons: 11-5 (stay away; the line is 10). I don't like Atlanta; I think they regress a little this season.
Carolina Panthers: 4-12 (stay away; the line is at 4.5). I hope Newton brought his Cammy Cam Juice.
Tampa Bay Bucs: 2-14 (bet the under on 8). Listen, they'll likely win more than 2 games, but not by much.

West:
St. Louis Rams: 9-7 (bet the over on 7.5). I love Bradford. I'm thinking playoffs this year; they're solid.
Arizona Cardinals: 9-7 (bet the over on 7). Fitzgerald's gotta be thrilled to have an actual QB again.
San Francisco 49ers: 9-7 (bet the over on 7.5). 3 teams over .500 in the NFC West?!? It can't be!
Seattle Seahawks: 5-11 (stay away; the line's at 6). Tavaris Jackson is awful. I'm sorry, but... no.

AFC
East:
New York Jets: 13-3 (bet the over on 10). Probably a little high, but I think Sanchez will have a nice season.
New England Patriots: 13-3 (bet the over on 11.5). This division race will be awesome. Two great teams.
Buffalo Bills: 6-10 (stay away; the line is 5.5). I don't know what to make of Buffalo. They're so boring.
Miami Dolphins: 5-11 (bet the under on 7.5). Who thinks the Dolphins will be good? Why is that line so high?

North:
Pittsburgh Steelers: 14-2 (bet the over on 10.5). I'm unusually high on Pittsburgh. I like their defense a lot.
Baltimore Ravens: 13-3 (bet the over on 10.5). Cut and paste the above statement. But, Big Ben > Flacco.
Cleveland Browns: 2-14 (bet the under on 6.5). It feels like Cleveland is in a perpetual state of rebuilding.
Cincinnati Bengals: 1-15 (bet the under on 5.5). This team is A-W-F-U-L. But they're young. Really young.

South:
Indianapolis Colts: 12-4 (bet the over on 9.5). I'll never bet against Peyton Manning. They're not done yet.
Houston Texans: 12-4 (bet the over on 8.5). This one was the most surprising. I apparently love Houston.
Tennessee Titans: 5-11 (bet the under on 7). Meh. 36 year-old Matt Hasselbeck doesn't inspire excitement.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-13 (bet the under on 6.5). So long, Jack Del Rio. Your run was...uh...existent?

West:
San Diego Chargers: 12-4 (bet the over on 10). I'm not in love with this team. I think it must be Norv Turner.
Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (stay away; the line is at 8). They're a very average team. Mediocrity at its best.
Denver Broncos: 3-13 (stay away; the line is at 5.5). Can we stop pretending Tim Tebow is good yet?
Oakland Raiders: 3-13 (bet the under on 7). The person I missed the most during the NFL lockout? Al.

Well, there you have it, boys and girls. Do with it what you will. I can't even begin to express how excited I am that football is back. I've watched parts of 5 preseason games already. Which is 5 more than the average year. I'm literally drooling just thinking about the regular season. In fact, I think I better finish up this post; I might need a little alone time. Just me, my computer and this webpage.

*All win totals are taken from sportsbook.com

Football!!! There Will Actually Be Football!!!!

For the past 5 years or so, I have printed off the entire NFL schedule when it is announced in April, and predict every single one of the 512 games in the regular season. Each year, I go through the depth charts of every team, and give them grades, average them and have a score for each team. Using that score, I play out each game (giving some weight to home-field advantage), and come up with a record for each team.

Unfortunately, I wasn't able to do that in April of this year (or May or June or July...), due to the NFL lockout. But, after a hectic week or two of free agency (Nnamdi!!!!), I've got the schedule printed out and ready to go. I'll have multiple posts over the next few days as I go through the schedule itself, but today's posts will be a chart of my grades for each team. Keep in mind that this is not an exact science; while I'd ideally weight offense and defense equally, as well as include some other intangible aspects to the teams, this is the system I've used over the past few years, and it works for me.

Here's how it works: there are 8 categories (quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers, secondary, and coaching/special teams). Each team will receive a grade for each category, which will correspond to a numerical value. These values will be added up for one total grade given to each team. Grades can range from an F (worth 0 points) to an A (worth 11 points). Therefore, the highest possible grade a team could have would be an 88. Now, let's get to the grades:

AFC:

• Buffalo Bills- 57: QB (B-/C+); RB (C+); WR (B-); OL (B-); DL (B-); LB (B); S (B+/B); C/ST (B-)
• Miami Dolphins- 57: QB (C+); RB (C+); WR (B/B-); OL (B+); DL (C+); LB (B+/B); S (B); C/ST (C+)
• New England Patriots- 66.5: QB (A/A-); RB (C+/C); WR (B-); OL (A-/B+); DL (B); LB (B+/B); S (B/B-); C/ST (A-)
• New York Jets- 68: QB (B); RB (B/B-); WR (B); OL (B+); DL (B-); LB (A-/B+); S (A-); C/ST (B+)
• Baltimore Ravens- 67.5: QB (B/B-); RB (B); WR (B-); OL (B+); DL (A-/B+); LB (B+); S (B+/B); C/ST (B+)
• Cincinnati Bengals- 48.5: QB (C); RB (C+/C); WR (C+); OL (B-/C+); DL (B-); LB (B-/C+); S (C+); C/ST (C+)
• Cleveland Browns- 52: QB (C+/C); RB (B-/C+); WR (C+); OL (C+); DL (C+); LB (B/B-); S (B); C/ST (B-/C+)
• Pittsburgh Steelers- 72: QB (B+); RB (B+); WR (B); OL (B+/B); DL (B+); LB (A-/B+); S (A-/B+); C/ST (A-/B+)
• Houston Texans- 65: QB (B); RB (B+); WR (A-); OL (B-); DL (B/B-); LB (B+); S (B/B-); C/ST (B-)
• Indianapolis Colts- 69: QB (A-); RB (B); WR (B+); OL (B+); DL (B+); LB (B); S (B-); C/ST (B+)
• Jacksonville Jaguars- 55.5: QB (C+); RB (A-/B+); WR (B-); OL (C+); DL (B-); LB (C+); S (B-); C/ST (B-)
• Tennessee Titans- 57.5: QB (B-); RB (A-); WR (C+); OL (B-/C+); DL (C+); LB (B-); S (B); C/ST (B-)
• Denver Broncos- 58: QB (B/B-); RB (B/B-); WR (B/B-); OL (B-); DL (B); LB (B-); S (B/B-); C/ST (C+)
• Kansas City Chiefs- 64: QB (B-); RB (B+/B); WR (B); OL (B); DL (B/B-); LB (B); S (B+); C/ST (B)
• Oakland Raiders- 56.5: QB (B-/C+); RB (B/B-); WR (B-/C+); OL (C+); DL (B); LB (B); S (C+); C/ST (B)
• San Diego Chargers- 67: QB (A-/B+); RB (B-/C+); WR (A-/B+); OL (A-); DL (B/B-); LB (B); S (B); C/ST (B)

NFC:

• Dallas Cowboys- 65: QB (B); RB (B-); WR (B); OL (B); DL (B); LB (A-/B+); S (B); C/ST (B+/B)
• New York Giants- 64: QB (B+/B); RB (B/B-); WR (B-); OL (B+); DL (B+/B); LB (B/B-); S (B); C/ST (B)
• Philadelphia Eagles- 69.5: QB (A-/B+); RB (B); WR (B+/B); OL (B/B-); DL (B+/B); LB (B); S (A/A-); C/ST (B+)
• Washington Redskins- 53.5: QB (C); RB (B-); WR (B-/C+); OL (C+); DL (C+); LB (B); S (B); C/ST (B-)
• Chicago Bears- 65.5: QB (B+/B); RB (B+/B); WR (B-); OL (B-); DL (B+); LB (B+/B); S (B); C/ST (B+)
• Detroit Lions- 61.5: QB (B-); RB (B-/C+); WR (A-); OL (B-); DL (A-/B+); LB (B-); S (B-/C+); C/ST (B)
• Green Bay Packers- 70.5: QB (A/A-); RB (B-); WR (A-/B+); OL (B+); DL (B+/B); LB (B+); S (B); C/ST (B+)
• Minnesota Vikings- 64: QB (B-/C+); RB (A-); WR (B); OL (B); DL (B+/B); LB (B/B-); S (B-); C/ST (B+/B)
• Atlanta Falcons- 65.5: QB (B+/B); RB (A-/B+); WR (B); OL (B-); DL (B+); LB (B-); S (B/B-); C/ST (B+)
• Carolina Panthers- 55.5: QB (C+/C); RB (B); WR (B-/C+); OL (B-); DL (B/B-); LB (B); S (B-/C+); C/ST (B-/C+)
• New Orleans Saints- 68: QB (A-); RB (B-); WR (B); OL (B+); DL (B); LB (B+/B); S (B); C/ST (A-/B+)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers- 56.5: QB (B/B-); RB (B-/C+); WR (B-); OL (B-/C+); DL (B-); LB (B-); S (B/B-); C/ST (B/B-)
• Arizona Cardinals- 63: QB (B-); RB (B-); WR (A-); OL (B-); DL (B); LB (B/B-); S (B); C/ST (B+/B)
• San Francisco 49ers- 61.5: QB (C+/C); RB (B+/B); WR (B+/B); OL (B); DL (B-/C+); LB (B+); S (B-/C+); C/ST (B+)
• Seattle Seahawks- 58.5: QB (C+/C); RB (B/B-); WR (B); OL (B+/B); DL (B-/C+); LB (B); S (B-); C/ST (B/B-)
• St. Louis Rams- 64: QB (B/B-); RB (A-/B+); WR (B/B-); OL (B-); DL (B); LB (B); S (B/B-); C/ST (B)

Once again, I'd like to emphasize that this isn't an exact science. These are based entirely on my opinions of these players/teams; however, I would like to mention that I considered players' ages, injury history and personalities, as well as backups at various positions (particularly quarterback). Expect another post in the next few days with regular season win totals, and possibly some gambling advice.

At least this one isn't as long as your average holdout.

“Holdout”. The word that owners in the NFL fear, and fans of the game hate. Holding out in the NFL is one of the biggest ways for a player to say, “Hey, look at me. I’m a selfish dick who doesn’t appreciate the fact that I was given the privilege to play in one of the greatest sports the world has ever seen”. Yet we continue to see players holdout, no matter how much time they have had in the league to grow up and appreciate the fact that they get to play in the NFL every Sunday.

Everybody remembers the Albert Haynesworth debacle. After agreeing to a seven year, $100 million deal with Haynesworth, the Redskins hired Mike Shanahan and switched to the 3-4 defense. Haynesworth didn’t think that he could showcase his talent at nose tackle and become known as the best defensive tackle in the game, but he didn’t want to be traded and give up his $21 million dollar bonus. So instead, he stayed in Washington, took his money, and didn’t play. Which didn’t ring well with other players. Eight years in the NFL, and you can’t just be glad you get to play? If he ever gets to play again, that is.

More frequently, it is the players who have been in the league for just a few years who holdout. Last year, fifth year player Vincent Jackson held out for ten games when he decided $3 million for one year wasn’t enough. In 1997, fifth year defensive lineman and three time pro bowler Sean Gilbert refused a five year, $20 million dollar deal with $5 million dollar signing bonus because he thought he deserved $22.5 million with an $8 million bonus over the same amount of time. When the Redskins decided instead to tag him as a franchise player, Gilbert held out the entire season.

Thirteen seasons later, Gilbert’s nephew decided to follow in the family’s footsteps. After two pro bowl appearances in his first three years, CB Darelle Revis held out until a week before the season opener because he wanted to renegotiate his contract. Revis missed three weeks of training camp his rookie year negotiating his contract, in which he managed to get himself more guaranteed money and a larger bonus by signing for the rookie maximum of six years. Of course his rookie money wasn’t enough, so Revis held out again at the beginning of 2010, the fourth season of his six year deal. After Rex Ryan dubbed him “the best defensive player in the league”, Revis wanted to be paid like it. So he took the $20 million dollars he was expected to be paid with the rest of his rookie contract and turned it into a seven year, $55 million dollar deal.

In 1993, another player with only three years of experience demanded to be the highest paid player at his position. In his first three seasons with Dallas, Emmitt Smith won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and led the league in rushing yards twice while making a total of $3 million dollars. After his third season, Smith wanted to be paid $8 million more than the Cowboys were willing to pay so he held out. After two embarrassing losses to start the season, Jerry Jones gave in and paid Smith $13.6 million over four years, making him the highest paid running back in NFL history. Did he deserve that contract at the time, in only his fourth year? Maybe, or maybe not. A Dallas Morning News poll showed that only 35 percent of fans supported Smith’s holdout and demands. Did he earn it? In retrospect, absolutely. He led Dallas to two Super Bowls rings in the next three years, leading the league in rushing during both of those seasons, and he has gone down in history as one of the best running backs ever. But in retrospect, everything is easier, right?

While holdouts bother me no matter who the player is, people can always argue that a player has earned the right to a bigger contract by proving their worth. Fair enough. But the hold outs that bother me the most are the rookie holdouts. Come on. You just fulfilled a dream, being drafted into the NFL. If you hold out as a rookie, you are one of two things. You are either a) arrogant as hell and think you are so good you need more money than everyone else or b) scared your talents won’t pan out in the NFL and you want guaranteed money fast before your short lived career comes to a screeching halt. Either way, I wouldn’t want you on my team.

Rookie example number one: Kelly Stouffer. There’s a good chance you haven’t heard of him. Stouffer was drafted sixth overall in the 1987 draft, but didn’t take a single snap with the St. Louis Cardinals his rookie year because of contract disputes. The Cardinals wanted to underpay him, his agents wanted to overpay him. Eventually, the Cardinals gave in and offered him what sixth overall picks would typically get ($1.8 over four years). But Stouffer’s agents advised him not to accept the deal, because QB’s are more important and deserve more. Stouffer sat out his rookie year, ended up being traded to the Seahawks, and finished his stellar five year career with a 51.5% completion rate, seven TD’s and nineteen INT’s.

Rookie example number two: Michael Crabtree. Yes, Al Davis made another “interesting” decision and took WR Darius Heyward-Bey over Michael Crabtree. Yes, Michael Crabtree was probably the better pick. And yes, EVERY mock draft had Crabtree has the first WR to be picked. But no, that does not mean you deserve to be paid like the mock drafts were real. Crabtree turned down $20 million because he wanted to be paid more than Heyward-Bey due to the fact that Crabtree believed he was the better receiver and should be paid like it. Had San Francisco agreed to Crabtree’s terms, he would be paid about $3 million more per year than Jerry Rice did in a single season. After missing the beginning of the season, Crabtree agreed to a six year deal worth $32 million (with a number of caveats). So far though, Crabtree is earning his money.

Oh, and ever heard of a guy named JaMarcus Russel? Let’s not go there.

Seriously? If a player is active for just three games in a single season, they are guaranteed at least $295,000 as a base salary. That is without any signing bonuses, incentive bonuses, or endorsement deals. That’s more than a surgeon makes after fifteen years of training (if you ignore the debts from med school!).

Even with all my whining, however, there is one holdout this year that has me reconsidering my eternal damnation of holdouts. The Philadelphia Eagles young star WR DeSean Jackson has been noticeably absent from team workouts at the beginning of this season. He has already gotten off on the right foot in my opinion by doing it quietly. The media has picked up on it, but this potential holdout has not garnered the same attention as, say, this guy. By being so professional with his holdout, I actually care to see why he wants more money. And I might not be opposed to him getting it. Why?

Well, ever heard of J.T. O’Sullivan? Maybe you have, maybe you haven’t. Drafted out of UC Davis in the sixth round of the 2002 NFL Draft, O’Sullivan led a career of record breaking mediocrity. He holds the NCAA record for most touchdown passes in a playoff game with six against Mesa St. Oh yeah, I guess I forgot to mention that UC Davis is Division II. He also set an NFL record in just eleven years in the league. Most teams played for in a career. Take that one to the Hall of Fame. But why do I bring up the nomadic O’Sullivan?

This season, DeSean Jackson is scheduled to make $555,000. J.T O’Sullivan made more than that in 2007 ($595,000), 2008 ($605,000), and in 2009 ($750,000). In those three years, O’Sullivan played in sixteen games, starting only half of them. His numbers: 145 completions in 257 attempts (56.4%), nine TD’s, thirteen INT’s, and thirty eight sacks. Not the numbers you’d expect to see from a man making more than a two time pro-bowl WR.

(WARNING- STATISTICS ALERT!)

And the numbers from DeSean Jackson? In 2009, Jackson was top ten in receiving yards, receiving TD’s, receiving yards per game, and non-offensive TD’s. He was third in yards per touch and punt return yards, second in yards per reception, and led the league in yards per punt return and punt return TD’s. In 2010, he was top ten in receiving yards per game and yards per punt return, and he led the league in yards per catch. In his career in Philly, Jackson has been the leading scorer for the Eagles (excluding K David Akers).

Let’s make some comparisons to some of the highest paid WR’s in the NFL, shall we? Since Jackson joined the league in 2008:

Greg Jennings: 12% of team points, 17% of points from TD’s. 2011 Salary: $2.7M

Chad Ochocinco: 12% of team points, 18% of points from TD’s. 2011 Salary: $6M

Andre Johnson: 13.4% of team points, 19.4% of points from TD’s. 2011 Salary: $6M.

Steve Smith: 10% of team points, 15% of points from TD’s. 2011 Salary: $7M.

DeSean Jackson: 11.3% of team points, 17% of points from TD’s. 2011 Salary: $550,000.

Granted, other WR have been in the league longer and have proven their worth and consistency. But Jackson has also started to do that. He has big play potential as both a WR and a punt returner, which none of the other guys on that list above can claim. Sure, he made a little mistake his rookie year, but he made his mark and stamped himself a bigger contract last year against the Giants.

And to just to make it a little more meaningful, let’s compare Steve Smith and DeSean Jackson a little deeper. Smith made less money than Jackson in his first three years, but did manage to get a new contract in his fourth year (six years, $27M). But in their first three years, Jackson had 999 more receiving yards than Smith (the punt return numbers were pretty even). Going into his fourth year, wouldn’t you want a player like DeSean Jackson to be happy and keep making those big plays if he were on your team? I would.

According to eaglescap.com (the “First site on the internet devoted to tracking salary cap numbers for the Philadelphia Eagles”!), the Eagles have close to $4M left for the 2011 salary cap. Give Jackson some more money. I’m not saying the Eagles should make him the highest paid NFL WR, or even close to it. But as one of your teams best playmakers (behind only Vick, maybe), he deserves more than $550,000. Re-sign him now before he can even consider offers from other teams in free agency. I’m not an Eagles fan, but I would not want to see a player like that leave my team because he was grossly underpaid. If I were DeSean Jackson, I'd give up the holdout. He's made his point, his team has a great chance at winning the Super Bowl this year, and he's gonna play well enough to earn the big contract next year. I trust Andy Reid as a coach, and I know he will make it work. But Jackson is being very professional with his holdout right now. Do the same and be expedient with his paycheck.