Regular Season Win Totals (Sort of)

Let me preface this post by saying that the actual numerical win total that will beside each team is unimportant. That seems counter-intuitive given that this post is about predicting regular season win totals, but use it as more of a benchmark. The main purposes of this post are to compare the win totals I've predicted to those that Vegas has put up and see where they differ. If it helps someone make some money along the way, all the better.

In my last post I gave each team a numerical score and mentioned that I would use them to play out the entire season. Allow me to explain my system a little further: For each game on the 2011-2012 schedule, I wrote down the home team and whichever team received a higher score from me in my last post. If both were the same team, I gave them the victory. If not, I wrote down the difference in the two teams scores. If it was less than 5, the home team won; if it was greater, the away team. I realize that this seems overly simple, but the truth of the matter is that home field advantage is extremely significant. For the most part, this also ensured that evenly matched teams in the same division would split their two match-ups.

To clarify a little further: The highest score I gave to any team was a 72 to the Steelers. Because of the nature of my scoring system, I necessarily predicted that they would go 8-0 at home. Because they have a higher score than anyone, they will always win their home games. Of course, in actuality, I realize that they could well go 5-3 or 6-2 at home this season; however, they will also probably win an away game or two that I am predicting they will lose. In the end, I'd imagine it will even out. Similarly, I gave the lowest score (48.5) to Cincinnati. Once again, I necessarily had them going 0-8 on the road. Because they will never have a higher score than their opponent, they can not get a road win using my system. Again, I recognize the flaws in the system.

One last thing before I get to the predictions: The tendency in my system is that the numbers will go to the extremes. You will see many high numbers and low numbers. For this reason, I encourage you to focus less on the actual number values and more on my commentary afterwards. For example, I have the Redskins going 0-16. In actuality, I don't think the Redskins will go winless this year, but I would be willing to put a lot of money on the under of 6 wins.

[Insert Rex Grossman joke here]

Now, without further ado, here are my regular season win totals for the upcoming NFL season*:

NFC
East:
Philadelphia Eagles: 14-2 (bet the over on 10.5). Yes, I know I'm a homer. Get over it.
Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 (stay away; the line is at 9 wins). I'm surprised how high I am on the Cowboys.
New York Giants: 7-9 (bet the under on 9.5). I really didn't like their offseason. They didn't get better.
Washington Redskins: 0-16 (bet the house on the under at 6). A John Beck/Rex Grossman QB battle? Yay!

North:
Green Bay Packers: 13-3 (bet the over on 11.5). I'm tempted to say stay away. I could see 11-5 for them.
Chicago Bears: 11-5 (bet the over on 8.5). Vegas is low on Chicago, no? I'd think 9-7 at worst.
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 (bet the over on 7). I've still got a soft spot for Donovan. Some wishful thinking here.
Detroit Lions: 6-10 (stay away; the line is 8). I actually like Detroit. But this division is brutal.

South:
New Orleans Saints: 12-4 (bet the over on 10). In my mind the NFC is Philly, GB & New Orleans this year.
Atlanta Falcons: 11-5 (stay away; the line is 10). I don't like Atlanta; I think they regress a little this season.
Carolina Panthers: 4-12 (stay away; the line is at 4.5). I hope Newton brought his Cammy Cam Juice.
Tampa Bay Bucs: 2-14 (bet the under on 8). Listen, they'll likely win more than 2 games, but not by much.

West:
St. Louis Rams: 9-7 (bet the over on 7.5). I love Bradford. I'm thinking playoffs this year; they're solid.
Arizona Cardinals: 9-7 (bet the over on 7). Fitzgerald's gotta be thrilled to have an actual QB again.
San Francisco 49ers: 9-7 (bet the over on 7.5). 3 teams over .500 in the NFC West?!? It can't be!
Seattle Seahawks: 5-11 (stay away; the line's at 6). Tavaris Jackson is awful. I'm sorry, but... no.

AFC
East:
New York Jets: 13-3 (bet the over on 10). Probably a little high, but I think Sanchez will have a nice season.
New England Patriots: 13-3 (bet the over on 11.5). This division race will be awesome. Two great teams.
Buffalo Bills: 6-10 (stay away; the line is 5.5). I don't know what to make of Buffalo. They're so boring.
Miami Dolphins: 5-11 (bet the under on 7.5). Who thinks the Dolphins will be good? Why is that line so high?

North:
Pittsburgh Steelers: 14-2 (bet the over on 10.5). I'm unusually high on Pittsburgh. I like their defense a lot.
Baltimore Ravens: 13-3 (bet the over on 10.5). Cut and paste the above statement. But, Big Ben > Flacco.
Cleveland Browns: 2-14 (bet the under on 6.5). It feels like Cleveland is in a perpetual state of rebuilding.
Cincinnati Bengals: 1-15 (bet the under on 5.5). This team is A-W-F-U-L. But they're young. Really young.

South:
Indianapolis Colts: 12-4 (bet the over on 9.5). I'll never bet against Peyton Manning. They're not done yet.
Houston Texans: 12-4 (bet the over on 8.5). This one was the most surprising. I apparently love Houston.
Tennessee Titans: 5-11 (bet the under on 7). Meh. 36 year-old Matt Hasselbeck doesn't inspire excitement.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-13 (bet the under on 6.5). So long, Jack Del Rio. Your run was...uh...existent?

West:
San Diego Chargers: 12-4 (bet the over on 10). I'm not in love with this team. I think it must be Norv Turner.
Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (stay away; the line is at 8). They're a very average team. Mediocrity at its best.
Denver Broncos: 3-13 (stay away; the line is at 5.5). Can we stop pretending Tim Tebow is good yet?
Oakland Raiders: 3-13 (bet the under on 7). The person I missed the most during the NFL lockout? Al.

Well, there you have it, boys and girls. Do with it what you will. I can't even begin to express how excited I am that football is back. I've watched parts of 5 preseason games already. Which is 5 more than the average year. I'm literally drooling just thinking about the regular season. In fact, I think I better finish up this post; I might need a little alone time. Just me, my computer and this webpage.

*All win totals are taken from sportsbook.com