Following the surprising first round upset of the Grizzlies over the Spurs, it was clear that these playoffs would not be as predictable as the NBA playoffs typically are. Few experts thought the Mavericks would even beat the Lakers, but Dirk Nowitzki put up an outstanding four-game stretch, outplaying everyone on the court, including Kobe Bryant. The Mavs' impressive sweep of the two-time defending champions has led many to pick them over the Thunder, who struggled through a tough seven-game series with the eighth seeded Grizzlies. Once again, I have a very difficult time picking a winner in this series, so I decided to analyze the match-ups.
Point Guard
Jason Kidd vs. Russell Westbrook:
While I'm sure having over a week to rest while awaiting Oklahoma City will be beneficial to the Mavs' 38 year-old point guard, there is no doubt that at this point in their careers, Westbrook is the better player. Kidd has no chance to defend the younger, quicker Westbrook, but does have the veteran knowledge to possibly force him into making some poor decisions. Still, if Westbrook can channel his performance in Game 7 against Memphis (where he nearly put up a triple-double before the fourth quarter began), he could give the Thunder a huge edge in this series.
Advantage: Thunder
Shooting Guard
DeShawn Stevenson vs. Thabo Sefolosha:
Neither of these players are household names, and most of the country probably would not have even heard of Stevenson if it weren't for his absurd neck tattoo; however, both will play valuable roles in this series, as they will be asked to defend the other team's most dangerous guard. Stevenson will likely be checking Westbrook and James Harden, while Sefolosha would try to prevent Jason Terry from putting up 32 points, as he did in Game 4 against the Lakers. Stevenson can be dangerous from the three-point line as well.
Advantage: Mavs
Small Forward
Shawn Marion vs. Kevin Durant:
Durant has led the league in scoring the past two seasons, and is probably one of the purest shooters in the league. At 33, Marion is past his prime, and has averaged less than 10 points per game. Given Durant's length and skill set, it is difficult to envision Marion being to limit him much, but, like Kidd, he could be able to coax Durant into making some mistakes. Still, the man has averaged 28 points and 7.5 rebounds per game so far this postseason.
Advantage: Thunder
Power Forward
Dirk Nowitzki vs. Serge Ibaka:
Dirk has been one of the most difficult players to cover in the NBA for a decade, and has been probably the most impressive playoff performer thus far. He has averaged 26.5 points per game in the playoffs, and dominated a Los Angeles Lakers team that boasted one of the best front-courts in the league. Ibaka is nowhere near the player that Dirk is, at least at this point in his career, but he is an excellent defender, and the leading shot-blocker in the playoffs (3.8 blocks per game). If anyone is capable of slowing Dirk down, I would think a combination of Ibaka, Durant and Nick Collison (among others) would be a good bet.
Advantage: Mavs
Center
Tyson Chandler vs. Kendrick Perkins:
Perkins hasn't put up huge numbers since coming over from Boston, but his presence in the paint has been critical to the Thunder's success. I would expect him to score more than the 4.7 points per game he's averaged so far this postseason, but would also look for him to clog up the lane and prevent too much penetration (cue Michael Scott). Like Perkins, Chandler has not been that statistically impressive since coming to the Dallas this past offseason; however, he has provided an offensive threat down low which is an important role given the nature of Nowitzki's game.
Advantage: Mavs
Bench
Terry, Barea, Stojakovic, etc. vs. Harden, Collison, Maynor, etc.:
Jason Terry's huge Game 4 against L.A. was a reminder of how dangerous of a scorer he can be, and you can ask Andrew Bynum what he thinks about J.J. Barea. The Mavs' bench was a large part of the reason why they were able to take out the Lakers so easily. Meanwhile, James Harden and the Thunder bench have done an outstanding job of allowing Westbrook and Durant to get some rest in their series against Memphis. In particular, the Thunder's front-court of Nick Collison and Nazr Mohammed was almost equally effective against the Grizzlies' Zach Randolph as their starters were. Both teams can go nine or ten players deep.
Advantage: Thunder
Coaching
Rick Carlisle vs. Scott Brooks:
Carlisle has done an excellent job as the Maverick's head coach since taking over for Avery Johnson in 2008. His game-plan helped the Mavs dominate the Lakers in a series in which they had arguably only one of the five best players. On the other hand Scott Brooks has come under some criticism for the way his point guard has played, and his seeming inability to get the ball in Kevin Durant's hands. While some of this criticism is fair, Brooks has helped this team jump from the bottom of the Western conference to 55 wins in only two seasons.
Advantage: Mavs
Prediction:
I will unabashedly be rooting for Kevin Durant and the Thunder, but overall, the Mavericks are the more complete team at this point. I believe Dallas will win this series in seven games, in large part due to great performances by Dirk Nowitzki. Don't be surprised if Durant puts up several 30-point games, or if Westbrook gets another triple-double, but in the end, the Mavericks will prevail.
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