Eastern Conference Finals: Bulls vs. Heat

Since the Celtics traded away their starting center for a role player in February, it became relatively clear that the two most talented teams in the Eastern Conference were the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat. After working their way through two series apiece, these two teams will look to establish themselves as the best team in the Eastern Conference, for this year and beyond. Since the regular season was completed, I have been struggling with which team I thought was more likely to win the conference. Now that they face each other, I have become even less sure about which team is superior. Because the playoffs are all about match-ups, I thought I would delve a little deeper into each of the positions in order to determine who will win this series.

Point Guard

Derrick Rose vs. Mike Bibby:

The Heat will likely throw many different defenses at the MVP of the league in order to slow him down, including Bibby, Mario Chalmers, Dwayne Wade, and even LeBron James. However, after seeing Rose light up the Atlanta Hawks defense over the past 6 games (he averaged 29.8 points and 9.8 assists per game in that series), there is little doubt that he will find a way to create points for the Bulls. Meanwhile, the 33 year-old Bibby averaged just 3.6 points per game in the 5-game series against the Celtics.

Advantage: Bulls

Shooting Guard

Keith Bogans vs. Dwayne Wade:

Once again, there can be little debate as to which of these two players is more talented or is likely to have a larger impact. Still, Bogans is a talented defender, and I think he will be able to slow Wade down (perhaps to something under the 30.2 points per game he averaged against Boston), even though he would likely be the MVP of the Playoffs if it were given out today.

Advantage: Heat

Small Forward

Luol Deng vs. Lebron James:

LeBron James, almost undoubtedly, is the most talented player in the NBA right now. At his best, he could take over this series and score 30 points per game, no matter who is defending him. On the other hand, he is also capable of going into a funk and shooting 38% while scoring 15 points, as he did in Game 3 against Boston. Meanwhile, Luol Deng is an excellent defender, who averaged over 17 points per game in the regular season.

Advantage: Heat

Power Forward

Carlos Boozer vs. Chris Bosh:

Both were huge free-agent signings this past off-season, but each has gotten some heat (no pun intended) for their performance so far this postseason. Because neither is known for their defense (which is more difficult to quantify) it seems only fair to look at their statistics to determine who wins this particular match-up: Boozer averaged 17.5 and 9.6 in the regular season, and 11.8 and 9.5 in the playoffs. Bosh, on the other hand averaged 19.8 and 9.0 in the regular season and 16.3 and 9.6 in the playoffs.

Advantage: Heat

Center

Joakim Noah vs. Joel Anthony:

Noah has struggled offensively in the playoffs so far, but he is an outstanding rebounder and defender, which will be a huge part of this match-up. He will certainly be asked to help out with defending Wade, James and Bosh, and his rebounding skills will be of the utmost importance if Chicago hopes to win this series. Noah averaged 10.4 rebounds per game in both the regular season and playoffs, showing consistency in that area. While Anthony is not asked to fill as big of a role as Noah, it is clear that even his 5.0 points and 6.2 rebounds per game that he averaged against Boston do not compare.

Advantage: Bulls

Bench

Brewer, Gibson, Korver, etc. vs. Chalmers, Jones, Ilgauskas, etc.:

Neither team's bench has been overly impressive this postseason, but in Chicago's Game 5 against Atlanta, Ronnie Brewer, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik each played over 20 minutes (Gibson and Asik playing most of the 4th quarter), as the Bulls pulled away late. That impressive stretch gives me more faith in the Bulls' bench than the Heat's.

Advantage: Bulls

Coaching

Tom Thibodeau vs. Erik Spoelstra

While the Heat faltered early in the season leading to constant speculation about the security of Spoelstra's job, Thibodeau, with the help of his MVP point guard helped keep his team near the top of the Eastern Conference standings with out Boozer and Noah for much of the early part of the season. Adding in his reputation as one of the best defensive coaches in the NBA, and it is not hard to give the edge to Chicago here.

Advantage: Bulls

Prediction:

After considering all of the above information as well as the fact that Chicago will get one extra game at home, I will pick the Chicago Bulls to reach the NBA Finals in a hard-fought 7-game series. Derrick Rose will get the bulk of the credit for this series win (as well he should), but it will be the outstanding team defense that the Bulls have perfected over the course of their 62-win season that will be the deciding factor.